Report of the Center for Geostrategic Studies
The conflict in Ukraine is still taking place at a high intensity, and there are indications that it could expand and grow into a larger, direct military conflict between Russia and NATO. Mass media recently published a lot of contradictory information regarding the potential use of nuclear weapons. Ukraine has accused Russia of making preparations for the use of nuclear weapons, and Russian officials reject such claims and emphasize that Russian intelligence services have obtained information that Ukraine is preparing a provocation that would activate a "dirty bomb" and accuse Russia of it.
US President Joseph Biden warned that Russia's use of nuclear weapons would be an "extremely serious mistake", thereby accepting Ukraine's claims. In contrast, the Pentagon has confirmed that it does not see any indications that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons.
The commander of the Ukrainian ground forces, General Alexander Syrskiy, in an interview he gave last week to the American media ABC News, stated that "Russian President Vladimir Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine is real and that the West "should be concerned."
In the same interview, he thanked the US for its arms assistance, saying that US support was crucial in the war against the enemy. In recent months, the USA has allocated huge financial resources to help Ukraine, and now a new aid package is being prepared.
"The United States will provide an additional $1.1 billion in military aid to Ukraine, including funding for approximately 18 advanced missile systems and other anti-drone weapons, the White House announced on September 28."
Regardless of the decision of the White House, there are increasingly loud requests in the US to invest efforts in finding a political solution to the conflict in Ukraine, through direct negotiations with Russia, while rejecting the previous idea of sending weapons. The Republican leader in the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, warned that there could be a suspension of aid to Ukraine if the Republicans win the majority in the upcoming elections, on November 8. There are also disagreements within the Democratic Party over sending weapons and money to one of the warring parties in the Ukrainian conflict. The fact is that such actions only increase the conflict potential and lead to a dangerous situation where the conflict may expand. Russian officials have repeatedly warned about this.
Russia claims that the statements of the Ukrainian side about the use of nuclear weapons are tendentious and serve to cover up the true intentions.
At a meeting of the Valdai Club, Vladimir Putin denied Russia was fueling nuclear tensions and countered Western warnings that Moscow may be planning to detonate a "dirty bomb" in Ukraine in a false flag operation, saying he saw no "point" in a nuclear strike.
Russian officials are adamant that Russia can use nuclear weapons only in accordance with its military defense strategy, which includes this measure only in the event of an attack on Russia or an existential threat to this country. Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly announced that he has personally ordered Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to inform his colleagues of Kyiv's plans to conduct a false flag operation using a "dirty bomb".
Russian media previously reported that: „Specialists from the Ukrainian enterprise 'Yuzhmash' [a Ukrainian missile manufacturer] have prepared a dummy rocket, which is planned to be filled with radioactive material, and then allegedly shot down over the exclusion zone of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and announce the launch of a nuclear charge by the Russian armed forces“.
Minister Shoigu held telephone conversations with numerous foreign colleagues, including those from Great Britain, India, China, the USA, Turkey, and France, warning them of the threat coming from Ukraine.
Before the beginning of the UN Security Council session, the representative of the Russian mission, Dmitry Polyansky, addressed the journalists with the following words: "We have just requested a meeting on the possibility of creating a dirty bomb in Ukraine by the Ukrainian authorities. "We think this is a very serious threat. Ukraine has the capacity and all the reasons for it because we know that firstly, the Zelenskyi regime wants to avoid defeat, and secondly, it wants to draw NATO into a direct conflict with Russia, which is very dangerous, but profitable for the Zelenskyi regime to stay in power".
The head of the Russian forces for radiation, chemical, and biological protection, Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, said at a briefing that the Ministry of Defense has put its forces and resources on alert for action "in a situation of radioactive contamination" based on information about a plot by Kyiv to use "dirt" nuclear bombs.
We asked several experts and associates of the Center for Geostrategic Studies from Belgrade to comment on contradictory information and assess potential threats.
Vanessa Beeley, an independent journalist from Great Britain believes that:“ The Ukrainian Armed Forces are losing this war. They have suffered huge personnel and military hardware losses during their recent failed incursions into the Kherson sector. NATO has poured weapons into Ukraine, and the UK and France are training the UAF but still, they are unable to break through the Russian/DPR/LPR defensive lines. The mid-term elections in the US are looming and Biden needs to demonstrate success in Ukraine but his hands are empty. Winter is coming, an environment that suits the Russian military forces and equipment. Winter in the EU and UK will bring increased civil unrest with fuel shortages and price hikes. There is a very small window of opportunity for Ukraine to make the gains necessary before 300,000 reservists arrive to reinforce the frontlines. A "dirty bomb" false flag only serves Ukraine and NATO. Blaming Russia for using nuclear would revive the failing war propaganda and perhaps enable NATO member states to officially enter the fight“.
„I would compare this current threat of a false flag to the chemical weapon staged events in Syria at critical times in the US/UK-led regime change war. Each attack came at a time the Western-backed terrorist forces were losing vital territory and influence“, concluded Vanessa Beeley.
Mitar Kovač, retired general and former head of the strategic planning sector in the Serbian Army, today head of the Eurasian Security Forum from Serbia, claims that "it is a media campaign by the West to create the best possible conditions for discrediting and isolating Russia. On the other hand, it prepares the public for the fact that Russia will use a dirty bomb or a low-power nuclear bomb. It is actually planned by Ukraine in order to accuse the Russian Federation, and these ideas are part of the US strategy in the first place, and then NATO and the EU. That is what they did until now with the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, and we have not seen a decisive reaction from the UN. A dirty bomb scenario is likely when Ukraine suffers significant defeats on the front. It is good that Russia went public in time, and also informed the missions in the UN about such plans. This problem should be kept in the public eye because the US is ready to support such a plan if the scenario goes in a bad direction for them".
Arnaud Devaley, an expert on humanitarian law from France, stated that: "Ukraine knows that it cannot reclaim the territories that it has lost using conventional means. So it needs to escalate the conflict by trying to goad the world into thinking that Russia is growing so" frustrated" that in order to placate public opinion (which Western média has been insisting is lagging behind the war efforts), it is willing to detonate a nuclear device. The problem with such reasoning is that not unlike the nuclear plant, it is premised on the fallacy that Russia will bomb areas under its control. Why would Russia take the risk of using a nuclear device short of an existential threat (which right now isn't there). Putin has reaffirmed that the Federation's nuclear doctrine does not include first use. So, it can only be inferred that the terrorist regime in Kyiv needs to create a casus belli to get NATO to effectively enter the conflict. The stakes are high in what used to be known as Ukraine: we are not only dealing with Western politicians getting deprived of their lucrative ventures but also the truth about the bactériological (illegal) activities is about to be unleashed with Russia successfully pushing for the UNSC to launch an official investigation in accordance with AA 6 of the Convention on the prohibition of such activities. If the investigation reveals that these WMDs were getting ready to be unleashed on Russia, the whole premise of "Russian Aggression “will collapse“.
Nikola Perović, a military expert from the Center for Geostrategic Studies from Montenegro believes that: "The media is a weapon of the fourth generation." The goal of NATO countries is to demonize Russia in the media, and especially to find a way to influence Russian public opinion. What better than a nuclear bomb to scare the citizens of the world? Despite this propaganda, European citizens are aware that Ukraine is a battlefield for NATO, and it is known that the war operations are orchestrated by the United States, whose goals are to weaken and destroy Russia. NATO member countries have invested so much military equipment and billions of dollars in the hope of defeating Russia with Ukrainian hands. Nevertheless, Ukraine today finds itself in a situation of defeat where the Russian army dominates the field and is waging a modern war. Why would Russia use a nuclear bomb under such circumstances?"
European and American media have been disseminating various warnings regarding possible provocations, so did their Russian and Ukrainian collegues. It could be the case that some of those didn’t take place specifically as the information was brought to the light, yet in the times of information wars and psyops the truth becomes the first victim. The only thing the absolute majority of the world is hoping for is that the nuclear threats remain in the realm of hypothesis.
November 1, 2022
References:
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/25/politics/biden-russia-dirty-bomb/index.html
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/pentagon-says-no-dirty-bomb-nuke
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-us-military-aid-1-1-billion/32056533.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/25/democrats-joe-biden-ukraine-war-russia-letter
https://tass.com/politics/1528733
https://russiaun.ru/en/news/stakeout_251022