Alexander Azadgan: Will There Ever Be an Independent Palestinian State?

Will There Ever Be an Independent Palestinian State?

By Alexander Azadgan

The question of whether there will ever be an independent Palestinian state is one of the most complex, emotionally charged, and geopolitically significant issues in modern history. It touches on deep historical grievances, international diplomacy, regional instability, national identity, and competing narratives of justice and survival. Over the past century, multiple attempts have been made to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, yet the idea of an independent Palestinian state remains elusive. Will it ever become a reality? The answer lies in understanding the historical roots, current dynamics, and future possibilities.

Historical Context: The Birth of the Conflict

The origins of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict trace back to the late 19^th and early 20^th centuries. With the rise of both Jewish and Arab nationalist movements during the decline of the Ottoman Empire, tensions began to surface over claims to the same land: Palestine. The 1917 Balfour Declaration, in which Britain expressed support for a “national home for the Jewish people”  in Palestine, fueled Arab fears of displacement.

In 1947, the United Nations proposed a partition plan to divide Palestine into Jewish and Arab states. Jews accepted the plan, but Arab leaders rejected it. When the State of Israel was declared in 1948, neighboring Arab countries invaded. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians fled or were expelled from their homes – an event known as the “Nakba”, roughly translated from Arabic as “catastrophe”, in the collective Palestinian memory and national narrative. Israel won the war and expanded and occupied beyond the UN-proposed borders. No Palestinian state was established.

In 1967, during the Six-Day War, Israel captured the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem. These territories became central to the Palestinian aspiration for statehood. However, decades of occupation, violence, crazed settlement expansion, and political deadlock have stymied that goal.

The Oslo Accords and the Two-State Solution:

The most significant push toward Palestinian statehood came in the 1990s with the Oslo Accords. These agreements, signed between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), were based on mutual recognition and the idea of a two-state solution living side by side in peace abd tranquility . The Palestinian Authority (PA) was established to govern parts of the West Bank and Gaza.

Oslo raised hopes, but they were quickly dashed. Key issues such as borders, the status of Jerusalem, illegal Israeli settlements, Palestinian refugees, and security remained unresolved. The assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin by an ultra right-wing Jewish religious madman, the outbreak of the Second Intifada (Palestinian uprising) in 2000, and the rise of hardline politics on both sides contributed to the breakdown of the peace process.

The Current Reality: Fragmentation and Entrenchment

Today, the reality on the ground is far from the vision of two sovereign states coexisting peacefully. In my opinion, five major obstacles stand in the way of a Palestinian state:

1. Geographic Fragmentation: The Palestinian territories are divided not just geographically (Gaza and the West Bank are separated) but politically. Hamas controls Gaza, while the PA governs parts of the West Bank. This disunity weakens the Palestinian national movement which was always the goal of the radical right-wing parties in Israel.
2. Illegal Israeli Settlements: More than 700,000 Israelis now live in Illegal settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, areas claimed by Palestinians for their future state. These settlements are considered 100% illegal under international law, though Israel disputes this. Their continued expansion complicates any future border arrangements.
3. Security and Political Concerns: Israel cites security concerns, especially regarding Hamas, as justification for its military presence in the West Bank and blockade of Gaza. Many Israelis fear that a Palestinian state could become a hostile entity on its borders.
4. Shifting International Dynamics: The Arab world, once united in support of the Palestinian cause, is increasingly prioritizing its own national interests at the expense of destitute Palestinians who have been getting systematically genocided by the Netanyahu regime since October 7^th, 2023 . Recent normalization agreements between Israel and countries like the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan (under President Trump’s Abraham Accords) signal a shift away from the traditional Arab consensus that peace with Israel should follow the establishment of a Palestinian state.
5. S. and International Policy: The United States has historically played a key role in the peace process, but recent administrations have taken varying approaches, from strong support for Israel under the Trump administration to more measured, but cautious, policies under Joe Biden. International support for Palestinian rights remains strong in many quarters, but lacks the leverage or unity needed to force meaningful change.

Future Possibilities: Scenarios for Palestinian Statehood

1. Two-State Solution (Most Discussed, Least Likely at Present)

Despite widespread international support, the two-state solution faces immense challenges. The political will is lacking on both sides: Israel’s current leadership is dominated by radical right-wing parties that oppose Palestinian statehood, and the Palestinian leadership is divided and weakened. Without a major shift in leadership or grassroots pressure, this scenario remains unlikely in the short term.

2. One-State Solution (Democratic or Apartheid-like Outcomes)

As illegal settlement growth continues in West Bank, some argue that the two-state solution is no longer viable. A one-state solution could involve full political rights for all, effectively ending Israel as a Jewish-majority state – something most Israelis oppose. Alternatively, maintaining the current status quo could further encourage Israel’s apartheid system, with Palestinians being denied equal rights – a situation heavily  criticized by all human rights organizations.

3. Confederation or Hybrid Models

Some thinkers propose alternative models, like an Israeli-Palestinian confederation or joint sovereignty over contested areas like Jerusalem. These models aim to address the reality of interwoven populations and economies, but remain highly theoretical and politically contentious.

4. Continued Status Quo

The most likely short-term scenario is a continuation of the status quo: Israeli military control over the West Bank, continual  blockade of Gaza in a post-genocide demolition and forced depopulation/ displacement of Gaza, and limited Palestinian self-rule in West Bank under the corrupt supervision of Fattah. This, of course, is a volatile and unsustainable situation that fosters resentment, cycles of violence, and international criticism.

Will It Ever Happen?

The honest answer is: not without a fundamental transformation – in leadership, in political incentives, and in public will – both in Israel, the Palestinian territories, and the international community. For an independent Palestinian state to emerge, several preconditions would need to be met:

1. A unified and legitimate Palestinian leadership capable of negotiating and governing effectively.
2. A sane Israeli government willing to make substantial territorial compromises. The Netanyahu regime must be dismantled and Benjamin Netanyahu himself must be prosecuted at The Hague by the ICJ (International Court of Justice) as a war criminal.
3. A shift in regional and international dynamics to prioritize the Palestinian issue.
4. A grassroots movement – on both sides – that pushes for peace and mutual recognition.

While these conditions do not currently exist, history shows that change can come unexpectedly. Few predicted the fall of apartheid in South Africa or the reunification of Germany. Long-standing conflicts can sometimes resolve when political, social, and economic pressures align.

Conclusion:

The creation of an independent Palestinian state remains one of the most pressing unresolved issues of our time. While deeply embedded obstacles make its realization unlikely in the near future, it is not impossible. The road to peace will require courage, compromise, and imagination from all sides. Until then, Palestinians continue to live without a state, and the region remains caught in a cycle of instability that serves no one’s long-term interests. The world watches and waits for a breakthrough that has yet to come.

DISCLAIMER: I maintain my 1^st Amendment right to be able to express my own personal views on different issues, especially controversial ones. I do not, never have, never will promote anyone’s “propaganda”.  I’m an equal opportunity critic and a 100% financially and ideologically independent and patriotic American scholar whose core academic responsibility and moral obligation is to speak the truth and raise awareness. I’m continually guided by John 8:32 which states, “Truth shall set you free.” As such, the content of all my social media posts, tv interviews, lectures, podcasts, webinars, published articles, etc. (which are all at my personal capacity) are presented SOLELY as my own opinions. Therefore, my points of view should not be misinterpreted, mischaracterized, and/ or misconstrued as a statement of promoting (on behalf of) ANY person(s), ANY political cause, ANY organization, ANY government, and/ or ANY country. Any assertions to the contrary are categorically false and are a misrepresentation of facts and would be considered libelous and slanderous, i.e. a defamation of my personal character and public persona. I’m simply exercising my 1^st Amendment right as a proud American citizen, which is freedom of speech and freedom of thought.