The international conference entitled „Balkan of Peace, Security, Cooperation and Partnership“ was organized on September 21. in Sofia under the auspices of Bulgarian President Rumen Radev. The event was organized by the Strategic Institute for National Policy and Ideas, the Balkan Transport and Infrastructure Forum and the National Association for International Relations.
Conference participants signed the Appeal for peace and equal security in the Balkans.
Dragana Trifković, general director of the Center for Geostrategic Studies, spoke on the topic: Global Changes and Security, The Balkans in Search of Stability. Here’s her speech in full:
Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen, high officials, respected conference participants,
First of all, I want to express my great pleasure for being present at this important meeting and to thank the organizers for inviting me to participate in the work of the conference.
The topic of my presentation is related to the ongoing global changes and the perspectives of the Balkans in the new global distribution of power.
The system of collective security, based on post-Cold War principles and respect for the sovereignty of states, is far outmoded and inapplicable in practice, while clear outlines of a new system that would meet the needs of the twenty-first century have not yet been established. For this reason, we are in a kind of vacuum, which requires us to make efforts in order to find a solution, which is completely in agreement with the goals of our conference.
The very concept of security, as well as the traditional concept of peace and war, should be revised and viewed from a broader approach that includes new types of threats such as the protection of people from massive violations of human rights, merciless exploitation of human and natural resources, abuse of institutions, corruption and crime, extremism, social injustice, stratification of society, poverty, pandemics and so on. Today’s hybrid forms of warfare do not allow us to define the line between peace and war, freedom fighters and terrorists. Interstate and internal conflicts are conditioned mostly by ethnic and religious motives, unlike the former ones, which were conditioned by „political ideas“. The doctrine of the clash of civilizations also contributed to this.
In looking at the current situation, it is important to take into account the following facts:
After the end of the Cold War and the period of confrontation between the two superpowers, which was primarily based on the threat of the use of nuclear weapons, there was a detente in relations and a return to the ideas created after the end of the Second World War about common interests, the rule of democracy and collective security. The same period symbolized by the fall of the Berlin Wall also brought accelerated globalization.
The IT revolution became the main support for the spread of soft power and the projecting of a Western-centric political ideology that influenced the formation of public opinion. Not only the mainstream media, but also the non-governmental sector, the academic community, and large corporations served this purpose. Globalization has also brought with it interference in the internal affairs of other countries, that is, the problematic nature of military intervention, which is skillfully covered by humanitarian reasons.
International institutions that were created after the Second World War, such as the UN, the World Health Organization, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the World Economic Forum, the International Criminal Court, the World Trade Organization and others, during the period of the monopolar world order, i.e. the absolute domination of the United States of America, largely lost their neutrality and fell under the influence of Western power centers.
In recent decades, globalist elites have used wars and economic crises to weaken the national sovereignty of states, while building their own power through global institutions such as the UN, the IMF, and others. However, the USA itself, as a global leader, showed disrespect for world institutions, primarily through military interventions without the consent of the UN Security Council, which was also the case with Yugoslavia. It should be added here that the USA withdrew from very important international agreements such as the International Criminal Court, the Kyoto Protocol, the Convention on Biological Weapons, the Geneva Convention, the International Prohibition of Torture, etc.). This is in accordance with the political doctrine of the USA and the established „American exceptionalism“.
Ignoring the international legal order, as well as our own laws, has led to an increase in lawlessness, and in this context, the current world crisis, which primarily affects security, should be viewed. This was especially pronounced after the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001, after which the USA declared a war on terrorism and invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. In the final result, both operations failed, and there was an expansion of terrorism, destabilization of entire regions, mass migrations, and an increase in instability.
When we talk about Europe, its collective security is firmly tied to transatlantic institutions. With the founding of the NATO organization in 1949 in Washington, Western European countries, the USA and Canada began the formation of a military structure whose main goal was common defense. At the same time, Western European countries launched an initiative to politically integrate Europe, which resulted in the creation of the European Union. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, i.e. the Warsaw Pact, the international circumstances completely changed and NATO, as an organization created to defend against the communist threat, lost the meaning of its existence. However, in addition to this, NATO under the leadership of the USA is starting to expand to the East, despite the promises that Washington made to Moscow that this will not happen. NATO’s infrastructure expanded to Russia’s borders, with the integration of the former Soviet republics, which led to a tightening of relations between Russia and the USA, but also to an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.
The EU itself has repeatedly tried to create its own security forces, but the US and Great Britain saw it as a duplication of forces and a reduction in NATO’s role. However, some progress has been made. The European Defense Agency was established in 2004, and the Lisbon Treaty established a framework for military-security cooperation, as well as the possibility of defense integration in the Union. Such steps have led to the formation of „rapid reaction“ combat groups, which can be the basis of an eventual future EU army. In the context of the pan-European security strategy, the OSCE has the capacity to deal with new security problems, including new security challenges.
From a strategic point of view, Europe’s main problem is adapting to new and changed world circumstances, where it finds itself in a gap between desires and possibilities. The security context of the beginning of the new millennium refers to the interaction of a deeply divided world along the lines of faith, wealth and value systems. What the world needs is a much broader global security concept, with transnational dimensions, which, due to colossal changes in the global security scene, requires new and far-reaching forms of collective action, primarily by governments and international institutions, which are currently lacking. The United Nations does not have the capacity to take on this task, although with its most widely accepted legitimacy and its greatest formal authority, there is no other international rival to take on such a role.
New security compliances are, by all accounts, possible. They can take the form of a search for new models within the multipolar world – Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa, and the group of countries that gathers around the BRICS. These countries are interested in recomposing the security architecture, which is a sign of the old bloc division, as well as in the reform of international institutions, including the UN. The strengthening of regional institutions such as ASEAN should also be taken into account here, which indicate the possibility of overcoming traditional national security measures and power politics, as well as that „regional“ institutions can mediate and mitigate local conflicts. Regional approaches to security can represent a new, radical departure from power politics because they are compatible with regional interests and preoccupations and can reduce the influence of former „super-powers“ in matters of regional security. In this regard, in the Balkans, as a region historically associated with numerous conflicts, which is why the term „Balkanization“ was introduced in an extremely negative context (which was brilliantly demystified by Marija Todorova in her book Imaginary Balkans), it is especially necessary to think about regional security.
For the Balkans, regional cooperation would be a good basis for overcoming the security vacuum and creating a concept that could fit into the new security architecture. Regardless of the fact that certain Balkan countries are included in the EU and NATO, and others are in the process of integration with little prospect of ever being integrated, this should not affect the concept of regional cooperation.
Namely, it should be based on such foundations to overcome the existing situation as an obstacle. Especially if we bear in mind the fact that in the current circumstances it is not possible to clearly predict how Europe will position itself in the future, as well as whether a global consensus will be reached around the concept of indivisible security, which is realistic to expect. This concept implies the elimination of all problems that lead to international conflicts.
In this sense, on behalf of the Center for Geostrategic Studies, I fully support the proposed Appeal for Peace and Equal Security in the Balkans, as an extraordinary initiative to start Balkan cooperation on a sound basis. It is necessary for the Balkans to resist the politics of confrontation with joint efforts, for the states of this region to work on strengthening sovereignty, strengthening the rule of law, state institutions and security forces, along with the development of regional cooperation.
The cooperation of the Balkan states should be based on common interests and the fight against security risks with full respect for diversity. Such an alliance can fit into a broad global security concept, with transnational dimensions, which, with the reform of international institutions and the establishment of a clear system of values, could be a support for the future.
Thank you for your attention.