Alexander Azadgan: What Are the Possibilities and Implications of a Second All-Out War Between Iran and Israel?

By Alexander Azadgan

Tensions between Iran and Israel have been a defining feature of West Asian geopolitics for decades. Now that the two nations have engaged in direct, full-scale warfare, the possibility of a second war remains a topic of serious concern for regional and global stability. Further all-out wars between Iran and Israel would be catastrophic – not just for the countries directly involved, but for the entire West Asia/ M.E.N.A. (Middle East North Africa) region and potentially far beyond!

In this article, I explore the possible triggers, consequences, and geopolitical ripple effects of a second full-scale war between these two adversaries.

Historical Context and Current Tensions

At the core of the Iran – Israel conflict lies a deep ideological and strategic rivalry. Iran has consistently called for the end of what it terms the “Zionist Regime” , while Israel views Iran’s nuclear program and regional proxies as existential threats.

Key factors in the long-standing tension include:

Iran’s nuclear ambitions: Despite Iran’s claims that its nuclear program is for “peaceful purposes”, Israel sees a nuclear-capable Iran as an unacceptable threat and has conducted sabotage and assassination campaigns to slow its progress, not just in its so-called “12 Day War” against Iran, but during the past couple of decades when it assassinated too Iranian nuclear scientists.

Proxy Wars: Iran supports militant groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and militias in Iraq and Yemen – all of which oppose Israel and sometimes engage in direct confrontation with it.

Syria as a Battleground: During Basher Asad’s tenure, Israel conducted hundreds of airstrikes in Syria targeting Iranian forces and weapons shipments to Hezbollah before the fall of Bashar Al Asad’s government.

Diplomatic Isolation and Alliances: Israel has strengthened ties with Persian Gulf Arab oil dictatorships like the UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, partly due to shared concerns about Iran. This realignment has only heightened Tehran’s sense of encirclement.

Scenarios That Could Trigger a Second War:

While both nations have already engaged in a brutal war now know as the “12 Day War”, several scenarios could escalate into a second full-scale conflict:

1. Direct Attack or Assassination: A high-profile assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader or further major attacks (e.g. on other nuclear facilities or IRGC military bases) could provoke more retaliations and further cycles of deep escalation.
2. Hezbollah-Israel War: A war with Hezbollah in Lebanon – especially if backed heavily by Iran – proved NOT to widen into direct conflict, contrary to what experts predicted. Even the assassination of Sheikh Nasrullah didn’t cause a direct Iran-Israel War.
3. Nuclear Threshold Breach: As we saw, Iran crosses a perceived “red line” in uranium enrichment (or weaponization) caused Israel to launch a preemptive strike.
4. S.-Iran Confrontation: Tensions between Iran and the United States, especially as the U.S. acted on Israel’s behalf or vice versa, almost brought the two nations into direct confrontation as Iran attacked U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq, albeit Iran’s missles were intercepted .

Military Capabilities

Israel boasts one of the most advanced militaries in the world, with a cutting-edge air force, cyber capabilities, and a presumed nuclear arsenal.

Iran, while not as technologically advanced, has a large missile arsenal, strong asymmetric warfare capabilities, and regional proxies that could open multiple fronts against Israel.

In a second all-out war, Iran would likely rely on:

1. Missile strikes from within its borders and by its allies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
2. Naval operations in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, potentially targeting Israeli shipping or energy infrastructure, as we have seen in the Red Sea by Yemen since October 7^й, 2023.
3. Cyber warfare to disrupt Israeli government systems, infrastructure, and financial institutions.

Israel, on the other hand, would likely:

1. Launch more airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites, this time not being restrained by President Trump as the U.S. assigned this task to its own military.
2. Further utilize cyber tools to paralyze Iranian command-and-control networks. Israel achieved this in its 12 Day War.
3. Mobilize reserve forces and deploy missile defense systems like Iron Dome and David’s Sling.

Regional and Global Consequences:

A second direct war would have far-reaching implications:

Humanitarian Crisis:

Thousands of Israelis could die in Iranian missile strikes and bombings. Massive Iranian refugee flows could destabilize neighboring countries like Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkmenistan,  Pakistan, and mostly Iraq.

Oil Prices and Global Economy:

Any conflict that threatens the Strait of Hormuz, through which two fifth of the world’s oil supply passes, could cause a global energy crisis and financial markets would likely see severe turbulence. This was avoided in the 12 Day War, but may not be the case if a second war takes place.

Involvement of Other Powers:

In a second Israel-Iran war, the United States might be further drawn in than the first time, either defensively to support Israel (or preemptively) to limit Iranian escalation. Russia and China, both of which have complex relationships with Iran, might play diplomatic or military balancing roles. Arab states may face internal instability as public opinion and governmental policy diverge over support for Israel or Iran.

Spread of Conflict:

Pro-Iranian militias could attack U.S. bases in Iraq. Hezbollah, albeit weakened since October 7, 2023, could launch large-scale attacks on northern Israel, targeting major cities and infrastructure. Israel may retaliate in Lebanon and even in other countries harboring Iranian proxies, widening the warzone.

Deterrents to More War:

Despite potential further triggers, several factors continue to deter a second  all-out war:

1. Mutual Assured Destruction: Both sides understand the catastrophic cost of a second total war.
2. Internationsl Pressure: Global powers, including the U.S., EU, and even China and Russia, have vested interests in preventing war.
3. Internal Pressures: Both Iran and Israel face significant domestic challenges that make large-scale wars unattractive.
4. Covert Operations: Both countries may prefer shadow warfare – cyberattacks, sabotage, and targeted strikes – over a second open war.

Conclusion: A Fragile Balance

For now, a second all-out war between Iran and Israel is not inevitable, but it remains a high possibility that regional and global actors must vigilantly guard against. The conflict is shaped by deeply rooted ideology, strategic rivalry,  evolving geopolitical landscape, and even incoherent fervor of religious eschatology and Bible prophecy! While both countries possess the military means to inflict further severe damages, the costs – human, economic, and political – would be staggering.

Preventing a second Iran-Israel war requires sustained diplomacy, robust deterrence, and international engagement aimed at reducing tensions. The stakes are far too high for miscalculation or brinkmanship to prevail.

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