By Alexander Azadgan
Russia’s Role in U.S. Foreign Policy:
Historically, Donald Trump’s approach to Russia was seen as highly non-traditional. He was known for questioning NATO’s relevance and expressing admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Under his first term, the U.S. engaged with Russia in a way that many found conciliatory, particularly when it came to sanctions relief and diplomatic relations. However, Trump’s administration did impose several rounds of sanctions on Russian individuals and entities, especially related to the war in Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea, and allegations of Russia’s interference in our U.S. elections in 2016.
Now that Trump has returned to the presidency, his policy toward Russia may follow a similar pattern, one that balances confrontation with attempts at cooperation. His priority would likely focus on improving bilateral relations while addressing issues of strategic interest, such as arms control and cybersecurity, especially if U.S. relations with Europe and NATO remain tense.
Strategic Arms Control and Diplomacy:
One of the hallmark issues in US-Russia relations under Trump’s first presidency was arms control. Trump pulled the U.S. out of key agreements such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, citing Russia’s violations. However, he also signed the New START treaty extension, which continued limits on nuclear warheads.
With President Trump successfully re-entering the Oval Office in 2025 with a clear mandate from the American people, he may seek to negotiate new arms control agreements, potentially re-engaging in talks with Russia over strategic nuclear weapons. Any diplomatic efforts would likely hinge on a desire to reduce nuclear tensions while also asserting our American interests in arms modernization.
Geopolitical Alignments and Eastern Europe:
President Trump’s policies regarding NATO and Eastern Europe were often characterized by skepticism, with him repeatedly calling on NATO members to meet defense spending targets. While he expressed support for Ukraine against Russian incursions into that country, especially after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, his rhetoric also often seemed more pragmatic, advocating for reducing U.S. involvement in conflicts abroad.
It is my expert opinion that in 2025, the Trump administration will not prioritize military intervention in Eastern Europe but could instead focus on reducing the American military presence while encouraging Europe to take a stronger stance.
However, our commitments to NATO and its Article 5 collective defense clause may still be tested depending on how relations with Russia evolve.
Cybersecurity and Election Interference:
Another area where US-Russia tensions have been high is over accusations of Russian interference in American elections, particularly in 2016. The Trump administration faced heavy scrutiny over its responses to these allegations, though Presifent Trump consistently downplayed Russian interference and questioned intelligence assessments.
Therefore, it is likely that cybersecurity and election security will remain a central theme pushed by the neo-liberal globalists in Washington. Trump will continue to downplay the role of Russian interference, but will also be under pressure to address Russian cyber-attacks, particularly after the SolarWinds incident and other major hacks attributed to Russian actors.
Energy and Economic Relations:
President Trump has often sought to position the U.S. as a major energy exporter and championed American oil and gas independence. In this context, the U.S. rivalry with Russia over energy resources, particularly natural gas exports to Europe, could escalate. President Trump may push for policies that reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian energy sources and strengthen our U.S. energy dominance globally.
On the economic front, the Trump’s administration could consider sanctions against Russian oligarchs and key sectors of the Russian economy, particularly in the tech and energy industries, if tensions flare. However, trade relations may be less of a focus unless specific conflicts emerge.
Conclusion:
While the exact nature of a Trump administration’s 2025 agenda toward Russia is speculative, it is likely that it would combine strategic competition with efforts to engage in dialogue, particularly on arms control and energy policy. President Trump’s historical approach has been one of transactional diplomacy, seeking to balance American interests while minimizing direct confrontations, yet always keeping a focus on securing favorable deals for the U.S.
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