Written By: Nicholas Faure
The outcome of the US elections has an impact on Europe and puts the transatlantic partnership to the test. Donald Trump's return to the White House threatens new tensions in NATO and weakening support for Ukraine.
The outcome of the election in the United States will also affect Europe – especially in the field of security policy. In addition, Joe Biden, the last convinced transatlantic, leaves the political stage. Europe also faces the challenge of strengthening its independence in security policy.
What will the outcome of the US election have for Europe?
No other region in the world will be as hard hit by this election result as Europe. Before the election, observers and German politicians warned of the consequences of Donald Trump's victory on foreign and security policy. Neither Germany nor Europe are adequately prepared for this "in a purely political sense," Marie-Agnes strike-Zimmermann (FDP) told ARD television. The days passed when the Americans protected Europe.
Thomas Klein-Brockoff, director of the German Foreign Affairs Council, even talks about "elections that change the world order" and predicts that Europeans will fall apart in terms of America: some countries will try to build bilateral relations. A group of states will appear around Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban who believe they are on Trump's side.
Trump is critical of NATO and believes that a commitment to help NATO is only binding if all member states meet the financial demands of the United States. Such a position could significantly weaken the sense of security in Europe, especially in eastern Europe, and create new tensions on NATO's eastern flank.
According to military expert Karl Masala, Europe has learned nothing since Trump's first term. "Europe is not only incapable of war. Europe is not ready to defend itself. Most European countries have now reached their two percent defense budget measured against gross domestic product, but some have not yet. However, Trump is likely to demand an increase in European defense spending.
In addition, U.S. support for Ukraine could decline significantly under Trump, challenging Europe to maintain military and financial support on its own. This could have a significant impact on the European security situation and NATO strategy, as Ukraine is heavily dependent on Western support. Relations with Russia could also change, as Trump is considered to be benevolent towards Russian President Vladimir Putin.
It is also expected that the US will increasingly focus its geostrategic focus on the Indo-Pacific region and less on Europe. US interest in Europe has waned in the last 30 years, David McAllister, chairman of the European Parliament's foreign policy committee, explained. Europe therefore needs to pay more attention to its own interests.
What responsibility does Germany have for unity in the EU?
Germany bears great responsibility for unity in the European Union. But the centrifugal forces in the European Union seem to be growing rather than shrinking. Many are hopeful that the EU has shown in the past – for example during the coronavirus pandemic – that it can come together and achieve what it is actually capable of.
It is not only internal political instability in France with weakened President Emmanuel Macron and in Germany with a troubled government that puts additional strain on EU unity. On the other hand, there is a camp around Hungary's Viktor Orban, who sees Trump as an ally because his views coincide with their political views.
"There is simply no longer a clear counterweight to autocracies. There is no Berlin-Paris axis,“ warns SPD politician Bernd Lange, chairman of the European Parliament's Trade Committee.
Union Deputy President Jens Spahn also criticizes the lack of coordination – for example between Olaf Scholz, Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister and French President Emmanuel Macron ahead of the presidential election. Every federal government must be in "reliable contact" with every U.S. government, the CDU politician emphasizes.
What role can the new NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte play?
Ahead of the U.S. election, Mark Rutte, NATO's new secretary general, seemed relaxed about Donald Trump's possible second term and stressed his willingness to work with any U.S. President. Mark Rutte has repeatedly stressed that Donald Trump has merit in one respect: he has convinced European allies to invest significantly more in defense.
Trump's presidency will come at a time of rising defense spending, which, however, began before he took office and is not just because of his actions. After the occupation of Crimea, a trend of growing defense spending in Europe began, which was further accelerated by Trump's pressures on NATO allies. his demands led European countries, including Germany, to significantly increase their contribution to joint defense. Germany achieved this with the so – called" special fund " - a special fund that is additionally tasked with better equipping the Bundeswehr and increasing defense spending.
NATO had previously explicitly sought a successor to Jens Stoltenberg who could react flexibly to various U.S. governments. Ruth also brings experience from the first Trump presidency. At the time, as head of the Dutch government, he gained a reputation for being respected by Trump. However, this does not mean that the potential problems that this victory could cause to NATO's European partners are excluded.
What does Trump's election victory mean for the war in Ukraine?
President Volodymyr Zelensky has already congratulated Donald Trump on winning the election. He relies on a "peace through strength" approach in hopes that Trump could act in some way to support him.
A possible peace process could mean painful concessions for Ukraine. Trump's newly elected vice president J. D. Vance is apparently considering the possibility of creating a new demarcation line along the current front line with autonomous regions on both sides. Ukraine could also be under pressure to give up territory or renounce NATO membership. Ukrainians are hoping for personal contact between Zelensky and Trump, who last met in New York in September.
Trump's unpredictable policies and his previous announcements also raise concerns that the U.S. could significantly reduce or completely cut its support for Ukraine in a conflict with Russia. However, support for Ukraine was already limited under President Joe Biden.
Military expert Carlo Masala recalls Trump's contradictory signals: on the one hand, he claimed he could end the war within 24 hours if he wanted to. On the other hand, he stated that he would give Ukraine everything it takes to defeat Russia if the Russians did not agree to the agreement. Therefore, it remains entirely unclear how U.S. policy towards Ukraine would actually develop under Trump.
Source: Center for Geostrategic Studies
10. November 2024.
