Author: Areeba Sherwani
The United Kingdom and the United States are bound by a "special relationship". Since World War II, this relationship has covered defence pacts, trade, global diplomacy and influence on UK politics and culture. The saying that" what begins in the U.S. usually ends in the U.K. " is usually true.
Mutual trade is at the heart of this special relationship. In the twelve months ending March 2024. in 2015, exports and imports from the United Kingdom to the United States surpassed all other countries. Exports from the UK to the US amounted to £ 192 billion, almost a quarter of the UK's total exports, while imports from the US were £ 117.2 billion.
The UK / US also maintains one of the world's most enduring and influential intelligence-sharing and defense partnerships, rooted in cooperation through NATO, The Five Eyes alliance, and the AUKUS trilateral pact. These alliances were central to numerous military operations, nuclear deterrence efforts, and the exchange of cutting-edge technologies.
British - American political alignment.
Twenty-five years of the US-led war on terrorism have led to the UK's policy becoming even more aligned with the US, especially through wars in the Muslim world. As a result, anti-Islamic/Muslim political discourse in the UK has been mercilessly pumped up by think tanks and media corporations linked to the US for the sake of war.
Political movements such as" Brexit "and" America first " have also boosted nationalism and anti-immigrant sentiment, pushing for the isolation of the United Kingdom and the United States in the more confident world of the global south. US and UK support for Israel's genocidal policies in Gaza and sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine began to push the Muslim world and the global south away from trade with the West.
After Brexit, the UK is struggling to regain its global position in the changing geopolitical order, once portrayed as a stabilizing force, which advocates consistent U.S. participation in global affairs. However, the second Trump administration will exacerbate this dynamic, potentially leading to a volatile and politically driven U.S. foreign policy. This change could signal a resurgence of the "America First" agenda, which is characterized by a more nationalistic and isolationist stance, which will have implications for global issues.
Such an approach will affect the UK, which is gaining international importance as the tail of the US in world affairs.
Trump's isolationism, concern for the UK and Europe
The U.S. global strategy is already being transformed, moving away from a unipolar world dominated by American influence towards a multipolar global order. A survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs underscores this change, showing that many Republicans who agree with Trump support a more isolationist stance, favoring reduced U.S. participation in international alliances, especially in Europe.
For Western leaders, the move towards American isolationism is deeply troubling. With Russia's influence in eastern Europe, such a turn could undermine NATO, drastically changing transatlantic relations and reducing military support for Ukraine.
The UK's military-industrial complex, comprising major defence firms such as BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce, plays a key role in its economy and defence strategy, producing advanced military equipment and profiting from global arms exports. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022., The UK has pledged £ 12.8 billion in support to Ukraine as of February 2022, of which £ 7.8 billion is for military assistance. This includes £ 3 billion for military assistance in 2024/25. Strategically, the UK benefits from prolonging the war because they believe it weakens Russia militarily, strengthens NATO unity, and strengthens the UK's leading role in European security. With Trump's victory, assuring the world that he will end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and later reduce US spending on NATO, this raises significant concern for the UK and other European nations. While the UK supports the "Peace resolution", the ongoing war is in line with its broader goals of containing Russian influence in eastern Europe, strengthening NATO and maintaining the military-industrial sector.
If the U.S. withdraws from these global commitments, the European Union could face a more fragmented and multi-polar landscape, where nations like Germany, France and Italy could seek greater independence in asserting their influence.
Europe is already facing challenges in meeting its strategic goals, and internal tensions are becoming increasingly apparent. In Germany, the financial burden of increased defence spending has raised doubts about the country's ability to meet its obligations, especially in the context of collective European security. Similarly, Hungary, under Prime Minister Viktor Orban, has taken a more obstructive stance in the EU, especially on defence spending and collective policies, which has complicated Europe's efforts to present a unified front against external challenges.
These internal divisions, especially within Germany and Hungary, risk Europe's ability to meet its strategic goals and maintain cohesion in the face of external pressures, as seen in recent years. This decentralisation could cause a domino effect, leading to more Brexit, which would increase instability across Europe.
The spiraling energy crisis
According to Jeremy Shapiro, director of the U.S. program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, the United Kingdom once acted as a strategic "Trojan horse" for the U.S. within the EU before Brexit. With the departure of the UK, nations like Hungary or even Italy could assume that role in the Trump-led administration, supporting Washington's interests in the EU, especially in areas such as trade.
Shapiro also noted changes in transatlantic energy relations following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Before the conflict, there was a significant gap between U.S. and European energy prices, but the rise in U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe reduced this disparity. However, another Trump administration could take advantage of Europe's dependence on U.S. LNG by imposing an export tax, further widening the energy price gap. Since Europe has limited alternatives to Russian energy, it would likely be forced to pay taxes, increasing energy costs and giving the US a competitive advantage, especially in energy-intensive industries.
In May 2024, Chatham House published a report titled "Three foreign policy priorities for the next UK government: a case of real ambition", which highlights the UK's vulnerability in global supply chains, particularly in the event of a conflict between the US and China. The report stresses that the UK lacks a clear strategy for managing dependence on foreign suppliers, leaving it vulnerable to disruption in critical global supply chains.
British Middle East Policy
Britain's decision to suspend 30 out of 350 arms export permits to Israel in response to Israel's Gaza war is a minor shift in its approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Rather than signaling a profound policy change, the move acts more as a precautionary measure aimed at protecting the UK from potential legal and reputational risks, such as being accused of complicity in genocide.
The decision reflects Britain's attempts to balance carefully in the Middle East, where it has historically maintained strong diplomatic and military ties with Israel, while advocating a two-state solution and expressing concern for the humanitarian situation of Palestinians. By removing a small number of export permits, the UK seeks to distance itself from the Israeli genocide in Gaza, which experts say is by any definition a violation of international law.
However, the suspension affects only a smaller portion of total arms trade with Israel, indicating that the UK's basic support for Israel remains unchanged. This action looks more like a measured response to growing domestic and international demands for accountability, rather than a significant shift in the UK's broader policy towards the region.
When U.S. President Joe Biden publicly stated that Israel "goes ahead and hits Iran's oil industry", and later Trump remarked" hits nuclear first and worries about the rest later", the price of oil jumped to 5%. Iran is the seventh largest oil producer in the world, as a key energy player, Iran's role in global oil production cannot be underestimated, and any disruption such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil flows would hit world energy prices. This could trigger a severe economic crisis, reminiscent of the oil shocks of the 1970s.
For a newly formed British government that still finds its foothold, the challenge is enormous. The UK must conduct its Middle East policy with extreme caution, balancing its strategic alliances, especially with the Middle East, while at the same time preventing a catastrophic jump in energy prices that would fuel inflation in the country. Diplomatic engagement with key regional players and the preservation of critical trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz will be essential. At the same time, the UK will need to step up efforts in energy diversification and cooperation with international partners to mitigate the global economy from potential shocks.
America First? Great Britain's dilemma in the world of de-dollarization
Donald Trump's proposal to impose a 100% tariff on goods from countries that deviate from using the US dollar in international trade could seriously sour relations between the West, especially the UK, and much of the rest of the world. This policy, which is part of Trump's broader "America First" agenda, is intended to counter the growing trend of de-dollarization. Key global powers such as Russia, China, India and the BRICS+ bloc are increasingly moving away from the dollar to gain greater autonomy in global trade, and Trump's proposal seeks to curb this change. However, such an approach risks further isolating the US and its allies, including the UK, from emerging economies that are key trading partners.
For the UK, which is already facing economic challenges such as high inflation and stagnant growth, the consequences of such protectionist policies could be particularly damaging. Many countries such as India, UAE and Saudi Arabia exploring alternatives to the dollar are not only re-aligning with Russia and China, but also serving as key trading partners for the UK. Imposing general tariffs could seriously disrupt global supply chains, exacerbate trade deficits and raise the price of vital imports. In the past, US sanctions and protectionist measures complicated the UK's ability to maintain trade relations, as evidenced in its difficulties with energy and defense agreements involving Iran and Russia, where US policy Limited UK autonomy.
Trump's tariffs are likely to put the UK in a precarious position, as it would have to move between supporting its longtime ally, the US, and preserving trade ties with countries increasingly moving towards a de-dollarized economy. While the US may prioritize its economic sovereignty with this policy, the UK, as a smaller economy more dependent on trade, could suffer significantly from retaliatory measures by other countries. These reprisals could further isolate the UK and intensify its economic struggles.
The political divisions caused by the rise of Trump'S Magus of the "nativist" movement (let's Make America Great Again) are also playing out in the UK. Nigel Farage, leader of the Reform Party, is the face of politics in the UK and has dedicated himself to helping Trump win. No wonder Keir Starmer's Labour Party seems to have made great efforts to secure Harris ' victory. With Trump's victory, Nigel Farage's Reform Party is likely to become Britain's main opposition party and the top candidate for power in five years.
Conclusion
As the global order changes and US foreign policy becomes increasingly unpredictable, the UK will have to adapt to a rapidly changing landscape, acknowledging its status as a medium-sized power. While Donald Trump may not fully pull the U.S. out of global affairs, he is likely to seek new alliances with leaders who share his worldview, which would reduce U.S. commitment to Europe and the Middle East. If U.S. influence in these regions weakens, the UK may need to re-enter the EU to project global influence or face greater global isolation.
Under a Labour government, the UK will have to define its national interests, diversify its foreign policy, avoid full alignment with any single geopolitical bloc, and move towards greater political and economic independence. It may not be a bad outcome for the UK and the rest of the world in the long run.
Translation from English: Center for geostrategic studies
24. November 2024.
