Dragana Trifkovic, Director General of the Center for geostrategic studies
Numerous protests of citizens in recent months throughout Serbia and high tensions in society lead to a complete blockade in the functioning of the state and society, which affects all aspects of life. The discontent of citizens has been steadily increasing for years, without the causes of dissatisfaction being eliminated. The citizens of Serbia do not see even small steps in solving the many accumulated problems, which led to widespread frustration, which then transformed into widespread rebellion. If we exclude political slogans that are no longer of interest to anyone, because there is nothing behind them that has weight, and very superficial analyses that do not touch on the causes of bad condition, we can state that the situation is very serious.
- Decades of degradation
It is necessary to focus on current events, but also look at the past, because the dissatisfaction of the citizens of Serbia has deep roots. They go back to the time of the creation of Yugoslavia and then its disintegration, where the Serbs, as a constituent people of this state, who embedded in it their victories/victims in both the first and Second World Wars, are slandered and blamed as the only culprit for all the bad things that happened during the breakup of Yugoslavia. Certain compromises and concessions of the Serbian side during the creation of Yugoslavia served as a matrix during the change of state order, when Serbian interests were even more ceded. In socialist Yugoslavia, conditions were created for the further disintegration of Serbian statehood, as well as the dismemberment and narrowing of the space in which Serbs live. Sanctions imposed by Western states in the 1990s and NATO aggression on Serbia have caused huge and long-term consequences for Serbia. All this created the conditions for political change, which was greatly influenced by external factors. These changes came at the time of the rise of the United States, which until then had achieved the conditions to declare itself the only world power.
The first realized color revolution according to the methods of gene Sharpe took place on the fifth of October in Belgrade and it is known as the "pentoctobar" or "Bulldozer" Revolution. It led to the fall of the Milosevic regime, which was extremely unpopular in Serbia. Although many are inclined to view Milosevic today with a certain sentimentality, because things did not improve after his fall, but only worsened, the fact is that his rule left a difficult legacy. The Americans, with whom he had once worked very closely, managed to make him a victim by being tried in The Hague. If it were not for this fact, his reign would have been completely different. In any case, the dissatisfaction of citizens with the Milosevic regime created the conditions for political changes, which the West, which Milosevic no longer needed, wholeheartedly helped.
- Aleksandar Vucic as an ally of the West
What is important to note is that today's Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic was part of the Milosevic regime, as the youngest minister in the government at the time. It is interesting from his biography that after graduating from the Faculty of law in Belgrade he traveled to England where according to some reports he studied English, and according to others he worked as a bartender. Vucic is reluctant to talk about his stay in Brighton, but what is symptomatic is that his political career subsequently developed at a cosmic speed. Namely, after returning from England, Vucic changed his profession and as a law graduate began to work in journalism and politics. Soon after, he became an MP as a member of the notorious Serbian Radical Party. Aleksandar Vucic is remembered as an extreme nationalist who joined the Serbian Parliament in 1995. he said (addressing Muslims in BiH) the following words: "kill one Serb, we will kill a hundred Muslims". Who and his spiritual father Vojislav Šešelj, Aleksandar Vučić welcomed the West to argue all the accusations that were constructed against the Serbs. It is known that during the occupation in World War II, the Nazis in Serbia killed a hundred Serbian civilians, including children, for one killed German soldier. But such crimes were never committed by Serbs. It is also known who always plays on the map of ethnic and religious divisions and on the incitement of hatred and conflict.
As Minister of information in the Government of Mirko Marijanovic (1998-2000), Vucic remained remembered under the law on information, which brutally dealt with media and journalists by the regime. The coalition government at the time consisted of three parties, Slobodan Milosevic's Socialist Party of Serbia, the Yugoslav Left (The Party of Milosevic's wife Mirjana Markovic) and Vojislav Seselj's Serbian Radical Party. However, it must be said that media freedom in Serbia at that time, during the Milosevic regime, which many assessed as dictatorial, was at a much higher level than today. One of the reasons for the dissatisfaction of the citizens of Serbia today is certainly the abuse of the media for daily and political purposes by the ruling regime, as well as media censorship, with a harsh crackdown on dissidents.
This way of governing, along with all other established mechanisms of government, since the time of the introduction of multi-party rule in Serbia, does not allow the formation of authentic parties and movements. In Milosevic's time, there was a systemic opposition consisting of the Serbian Radical Party and the Serbian renewal movement, and today, despite many registered parties and movements, there is practically no opposition. In recent years, the ruling regime in Serbia, with the support of Western powers, has worked to control all opposition parties (but also analysts, journalists and intellectuals) from both the left and the right, as well as to exclude within their ranks all personnel who take care of Serbian state and national interests. As the main criteria for staffing in Serbia, readiness for submission and obedience, tendency to corruption, absence of political and all other attitudes and norms, low education, unburdened morality, unconsciousness, etc.were introduced.
- The current regime has done much more for the interests of the West than the pro-Western regime.
Although the regime of Aleksandar Vucic, resorting to political manipulation, tries to attribute to the former Democratic regime the responsibility for the decline of state politics, it does not have too many grounds for this. The democratic regime that came to power after 5. October 2000. in 1999, it was openly pro-Western and pro-European, but then geopolitical circumstances were quite different. However, as such, the democratic regime was not ready to cross a certain border in making concessions to the West, especially not outside the framework of the Constitution of the Republic of Serbia. In terms of foreign policy, the Democratic authorities pursued a balanced foreign policy based on the four pillars of foreign policy: the US, the EU, Russia and China. The most important agreement for strategic cooperation between Serbia and Russia was signed at the time of the Democratic authorities when Gazprom Neft bought a majority package of shares in the oil industry of Serbia and thus became the most important partner for inter-state energy cooperation. After the modernization in which Gazprom Neft invested huge funds, NIS became the leading company in the entire Balkans. Also during the Democratic authorities, an agreement was signed on the opening of the Serbian-Russian Humanitarian Center in Nis, which has all the conditions for becoming the main humanitarian center in the Balkans. As is certain, recently Aleksandar Vucic announced that Serbia was forced to take steps on the issue of the Russian stake in NIS at the request of the Americans. This practically means the illegal seizure of Russian property through nationalization, if the Russian side refuses to negotiate. The fact that the regime of Aleksandar Vucic is ready to terminate Serbia's energy cooperation with Russia has long been talked about, and apparently prepared with the United States. In September last year, Marko Djuric, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Serbia, a man recognized in Serbia as the protector of the interests of the United States and Israel, signed in Washington the agreement on the strategic partnership between Serbia and the United States in the field of energy. The main goal of this agreement is to enable us investments in Serbia's energy sector. Essentially all the important agreements with Russia on energy cooperation and humanitarian cooperation signed under the Democratic authorities are now in danger of being annulled. Previously, Aleksandar Vucic broke off military cooperation with Russia and violated Serbia's military neutrality by selling huge quantities of weapons to Ukraine, at the request of the United States. And recently, the chief of the General Staff of the Serbian Armed Forces, General Mojsilovic, informed the public that Serbia has terminated a number of agreements with Russia on the procurement of weapons. It was also an expected move because Vucic had earlier signed agreements with France, Israel and China, whereby the Serbian Armed Forces completely changed the standards that once relied on Russian weapons. Here, of course, it is necessary to note that during the regime of Vucic, a number of strategic agreements on cooperation with NATO (sofa, IPAP, etc.) were signed, whereby Serbia was de facto completely placed under the auspices of NATO, although it did not officially become a member. However, most of the public in Serbia is not even informed about these facts, and is not aware of how far Serbia has gone in cooperation with Euro-Atlantic structures. What the public is aware of is that the current regime has unlawfully handed over control of the southern Serbian province of Kosovo and Metohija by agreement with the West. And to prove as true claims that such a concession was a condition for bringing the regime of Aleksandar Vucic to power. See also 2012. Serbian President Boris Tadic refused to sign the anti-constitutional Brussels Agreement and integrate Serbian institutions into the system of so-called independent Kosovo, after which the West decided to change power and put all the cards on Aleksandar Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party. This party emerged from a Serbian Radical Party through the transformation of an extremely nationalist policy into a moderately pro-European one with the help of Western intelligence services. Given that Aleksandar Vucic was unacceptable and unpopular in the public, Tomislav Nikolic was chosen for the first plan as a transitional solution. Immediately after the change of government in 2012. the coalition, whose basis to date consists of Aleksandar Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party and Milosevic's Socialist Party of Serbia, Ivica Dacic, signed anti-constitutional agreements with Pristina on the basis of the Brussels platform and continued to actively participate in the dismantling of the state of Serbia in Kosovo and Metohija. In the last twelve years that the Serbian Progressive Party has been in power, the state of Serbia has gradually lost control of the southern Serbian province on a continuous basis, and today it has virtually no control. The West thus managed to implement the project of Kosovo's independence through pseudo-patriotic structures, while keeping the public in Serbia anesthetized. WikiLeaks cables revealed that the West realized that it would be far easier to implement its plans in Serbia if it brought pseudo-patriotic structures to power that would convince the public of one thing, and in practice implement everything the opposite. The only obstacle for the West remains Russia's opposition to the legalization of the fake State of Kosovo, but the West is counting on that if Vucic completely breaks off relations with Russia, and his policy is heading in that direction, it will resolve that obstacle as well.
The article was published in the Federal Information and political journal "persona strany"
Сербия в хаосе / Федеральный финтационно-политеского журнала"Персона Страны"
9. February 2025.
