Dragana Trifković, Director General of the Center for geostrategic studies
While the world is amused by watching elections and expecting changes that will supposedly come of their own by changing political structures that are actually part of the same system, reality on the ground is increasingly complicated. That's the point of having fun while dangerous games take place behind the scenes. In recent months, the analytical public has been debating what actions Trump will take when he takes power in January 2025. years. There will actually be no cut-off and no pause because the Biden administration is already preparing the ground for Trump.
The Ukrainian conflict
In the first place, it raised the conflict in Ukraine to a higher level by authorizing Kiev to use long-range missiles to attack Russia outside the special military operation (SVO) zone. Russia responded by adopting a changed doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons, as well as launching a new medium-range ballistic missile "Oreshnik" that showed great destructive power. So the confrontation of the collective West with Russia has been raised to a higher level with the potential for further escalation. Trump has already made an easy campaign promise to restore peace in Ukraine within 24 hours. It is clear that it is more important for the Americans at this time to freeze the war in Ukraine than the Zelensky itself. Although the expired Ukrainian president has a problem with the lack of manpower and the loss of territory, he is aware that peace negotiations mean the end of his career, whatever it may be. For this reason, he states that Ukraine is ready for talks on achieving peace, but at the same time points out that "Ukraine must find diplomatic solutions for the return of the territories occupied by Russia". On the other hand, the goals of the Russian special military operation are the demilitarization and denacification of the entire Ukraine, which will not happen if there is a freeze in the conflict.
In any case, informal proposals for regulating the Ukrainian conflict by Trump's associates have already appeared in the public. The proposals came from three key figures in the Republican Circle – Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg, vice president James David Vance, and Trump's former acting head of intelligence Richard Grenell. The peace "solution" they offer involves forcing (American-style) both Russia and Ukraine to reach an agreement, delaying Ukraine's membership in NATO for ten years, and gradually lifting sanctions on Russia. Ukraine would have to give up territories under Russian control, and the US would continue to help Ukraine militarily. Reaching such an agreement for Russia at a time when it is advancing in all directions of the front would be extremely damaging, especially as it would mean giving up on Russia's goals. In this regard, the Russian liberal structures, along with the peace plan, are also considering internal political changes, without giving up the idea of returning to the previous state of submission to the interests of the West. Moreover, the peace plan would only be a temporary solution in favor of rearmament of Ukraine and preparation of new forces for a renewed conflict with Russia.
The Middle East conflict
Since October last year, when Hamas launched an attack on Israeli territories (which may have been agreed with the Israeli side), the response has been an organized retaliation by Israel in which a large number of civilians, even greater than in the Ukrainian conflict, have been suffered. According to the UN, more than 40,000 people have died in Gaza, most of them women and children. In front of the whole world, Israel demonstrated the complete abolition of international law, even the Prohibition of humanitarian aid to Palestinian territories, which is unprecedented. Lebanon was also attacked, which also killed many civilians, and Israel continued to bomb Syria, Iran and Yemen. During that time, an offensive by terrorist groups in Syria was prepared. Of course, Israel is implementing its plans and activities together with the United States and satellites. The goal of the US-Israeli attacks in the Middle East is to destabilize the Axis of Resistance, which, with Russian help, managed to maintain stability in the region and not allow terrorist groups to take the initiative.
Photo: Axis of Resistance
After a series of organized operations against Iran and the Shiite Hezbollah in Lebanon, the US-Israeli coalition with Turkey has focused on Syria. Terrorist groups in Syria launched prepared actions in late November and very quickly captured Aleppo, followed by Homs, Palmyra, Deir ez-Zor, Daraa and finally Damascus. The rapid advance of the terrorist groups was carried out, according to information from the field, due to the abandonment of positions by the regular Syrian army. The U.S. and Israel have probably managed to subvert the Syrian army's military leadership. The combined action of the US, Israel and Turkey is only preparation for further US plans in the Middle East, which will focus on Iran with Trump's coming to power. Trump, who has been more closely tied to the ultra-militaristic structures of the Israeli regime since Biden, will give all-round support to Israel for an attack on Iran. This country is an important pillar of Russia and China in the multipolarization of the world. However, while Trump's policy is declaratively focused on American nationalism, it is fundamentally no different from the Democrats ' globalist agenda on foreign policy. Namely, the Foreign American doctrine of the extension of power through the use of force remains in force, as I wrote in the previous article Deimperialization Of America"Given that the Wolfowitz doctrine remains in place, where waging wars to pursue American interests is a foreign policy priority, it is possible to expect new conflicts." The problem with international organized terrorism arose after the collapse of the Twin Towers 11. September 2001. and the US declaration of" war " on terrorism. These terrorist groups are now American infantry in the Middle East. What is certain is that Ukrainian instructors also appeared in Syria who, together with the terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, participated in the attacks on Syrian cities. Syria is likely to find itself in the same situation as Libya after the fall of Gaddafi, where different factions will fight within Syria for power. The disunity of the Islamic world is the weakest link the US-Israeli coalition uses to pursue its own interests. In any case, it is expected that with Trump's coming to power, the situation in the Middle East will become even more radicalized and that in the coming decades, peace will not be able to be achieved.
The European crisis
Europe is entering a growing political crisis that exposes the fact that European states have no sovereignty and are dependent on the United States. The imposition of sanctions on Russia and at the same time arming Ukraine is reflected in Europe by the development of the economic crisis, deindustrialization, drastic security risks, increasing citizens ' discontent and especially the increase of distrust towards the political elites. Trump's rise to power in Europe will lead to an even greater rise in populist parties and even greater divisions within European states. Brussels ' globalist elites led by von der Leyen, who still have a majority in EU structures, are unlikely to be able to maintain control without us support. The two states that form the pillar of the EU - Germany and France-are left without their governments, and new election campaigns will plunge them into an even greater internal crisis through confrontations with the opposition parties (National Rally, Alternative for Germany). The fall of both governments was due to disagreements over the adoption of the next year's budget, because neither Germany nor France have enough money to meet the interests of all parties and meet the expectations of voters. If the two largest economies of the EU do not have the money to function normally, the question of the overall perspective of the EU is raised. What had a key impact on this situation was the introduction of sanctions on Russia, which gave up the cheap energy on which it developed its strong industry. This decision is only part of the political agenda pursued by the European bureaucracy, which involves the unconditional protection of American interests. In this context, we should also bear in mind the huge expenditure on arming Ukraine, as well as social assistance to Ukrainian refugees in the EU. Europe is now buying expensive American energy, as well as Russian energy through third countries at drastically higher prices. Regardless of all the above facts, the European elites completely ignore them and act as if everything is in the best order.
It is very possible that Trump will demand European states to allocate more defense resources, as he did in his previous term. This would put European countries in an even worse position. But it is not only money that is a problem for European countries where the political system itself is increasingly weakening. The situation with the elections in Romania, including Georgia, indicates that the crisis is much deeper. Western states that have given themselves the right to teach the whole world lessons on democracy and the rule of law are now revealing the true character. Due to the failure to organize color revolutions in recent years (Turkey, Syria, Belarus, Venezuela, Georgia, etc. The West has come up with the idea of self-voting heads of state or annulling elections when their results fail to meet expectations. So the West completely loses its legitimacy, which ultimately encourages many states to reorient themselves to cooperate with the BRICS. This trend will be especially pronounced if Trump introduces economic measures against the BRICS and EU countries as part of a policy of economic protectionism. However, the crisis in Europe will only intensify and push it to the periphery of World flows, preventing it from finding a significant place in the multipolar world. The threat of further conflict in Europe and the use of nuclear weapons will remain current.
Source: Center for Geostrategic Studies
8. December 2024.
