Dragana Trifkovic, Director General of the Center for geostrategic studies
The geopolitical struggle will continue on all fronts. Primarily because of the need of the United States to save a damaged international reputation, a political system in deep crisis and, in the first place, its own faltering economy characterized by a historical indebtedness of over долара 35 trillion. Trump's repeated slogan "Make America great Again"many people think that the United States will focus on itself. But the fact is that as long as fighting wars to pursue American interests is a priority of American foreign policy, no one can feel safe. Especially those with natural resources. For now, it is no longer a matter of prestige, but of survival.
In the previous article "Geopolitical struggle for resources“ I have explained in more detail the basic guidelines and results of such a policy.
One of Trump's goals is for America to become the main supplier of the world's energy market. The US has previously used energy policy to achieve its strategic goals. The CIA document, which was declassified, showed that the U.S. used oil prices as leverage over the Soviet Union's economy during the Reagan administration. The United States exerted influence on Saudi Arabia to keep oil prices low, thereby affecting Soviet industry and weakening it.
The US invasion of Iraq under apparent concern for weapons of mass destruction was also motivated by energy policy and the need to own the country's energy resources. Behind the war in Syria are the same motives. Also in Libya. The US itself does not have enough energy to take the leading position in the world, but its foreign policy is aimed at controlling the resources of other countries, as well as dictating the conditions on the world market. That is why the United States has used all permissible and illicit means to prevent Europe from buying Russian gas. But this has far greater consequences for Europe than for Russia, which has shifted to the Asian market.
What are the capabilities of the US?
If we talk about natural gas, which is the cleanest energy source, and about the possibilities of its exploitation and placement on the world market, the United States ranks fourth in the world in terms of reserves that it owns. According to OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), the list of countries by proven reserves of natural gas in billions of m3 and share in the world market is as follows:
- Russia 50. 279 24.38%
- Iran 33.988 16.48%
- Qatar 23.831 11.56%
- USA 14.254 6.91%
- Turkmenistan 12.177 5.91%
As far as oil is concerned, the U.S. ranks even lower according to OPEC (in billions of barrels and a percentage of the world's share):
- Venezuela 298.267 18.87%
- Saudi Arabia 266.428 16.87%
- Iran 157.600 11.43%
- Iraq 148.019 10.02%
- Kuwait 100.500 6.55%
- UAE 97.800 6.31%
- Russia 94.000 6.22%
- Canada 80,683 5.34%
- Libya 54.363 4.69%
- Nigeria 42.890 3.87%
- Kazakhstan 40.000 3.24%
- USA 22,870 1.60%
- China 21.874 1.29%
Information about consumption Americans make up less than 5% of the world's population and consume 26% of the world's energy to produce 26% of the world's industrial output. The basic question is how did the US become the leading country in the energy market, if the data says that it does not have the capacity to do so? This position was made possible by innovations such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, in English fracking. The United States adopted this technology in 2014. years managed to become the world's largest producer of fossil fuels and made a strategic step in relation to the countries of the Middle East and Russia. For the first time in decades in 2018. U.S. exports of coal, natural gas, crude oil and petroleum products exceeded imports, achieving a degree of energy independence.
In the second half of 2019. the U.S. was the world's largest oil and gas producer in 2020, and this energy surplus ended in 2020. years. Meanwhile, the US has focused on making it impossible to connect Russia and Europe with energy, in order to condition Europe to buy energy from the US.
Liquid gas instead of ordinary gas
The construction of the main gas pipelines from Russia to Europe is designed for great mutual benefit, which is planned for Russia to place gas on the European market, and to provide Europe with energy sources under very favorable conditions. Europe and Russia are naturally geographically connected, and Russia's largest gas deposits are located in north-western Siberia (Yamal), not far from Western Europe. It should be emphasized that transporting gas from the site through pipelines is the most efficient and convenient way for users. Where there are no built pipelines, this energy can be transported in the exact state (liquefied natural gas), mostly by sea. However, there is a huge difference between natural gas produced through the pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG). The conversion of gas to liquid state is a very demanding and complicated process that includes the construction of supporting facilities for transport, storage and regasification. Natural gas is converted into liquefied natural gas (LNG) by multiple compression and cooling at a temperature of -162°C, with the gas decreasing in volume approximately 600 times and losing its energy balance. So for Europe, depriving gas supply from pipelines is repeatedly worse in terms of price, quality and complexity of liquefied gas supply. But it is obvious that Europe does not make decisions on its own. After Ukraine 1. in January of this year stopped the transport of Russian gas through its territory, Europe found itself in a deficit. It was forced to buy record amounts of liquefied gas from Russia to secure energy for the winter. Regardless of all the circumstances, Europe is firm in its position that by 2027. the year completely ceases the purchase of Russian gas, which implies a plan Repowere. Thus, the decision to purchase Russian liquefied gas can be considered temporary, in the absence of another solution. Behind it is Washington's intention to control all directions of Europe's gas supply and impose itself as an indispensable supplier or at least an intermediary.
Freking
Let's go back to the question of American energy resources and application Freking. This multi-stage hydraulic fracturing horizontal well technology has become key to U.S. oil and gas production. Hydraulic fracturing (HF) is one method for intensifying the operation of oil and gas wells that involves creating a highly conductive crack at the site of the deposit to provide the flow of the produced fluid (gas, water, condensate, oil or their mixture) to the bottom of the shaft. After hydraulic fracturing, the flow rate of the well is usually sharply increased. The method makes it possible to" revive " wells in a dormant state, where the production of oil or gas by traditional methods is no longer possible or unprofitable. Since 2000. in 1999, gas extracted by unconventional methods from sedimentary rocks became the primary source of natural gas in the United States. In the period since 2007. until 2018. U.S. gas production has grown more than tenfold over the year, with Freking gas production reaching 63% of total production. In a 2014 U.S. Energy Information Administration report. imports of crude oil and petroleum products fell to less than 260,000 barrels per day, the lowest level in nearly two decades. "The reduced reliance on foreign oil is the result of both declining demand and a domestic energy revolution that, by combining hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, has unleashed vast reserves in shale rock formations. Oil production jumped from less than a million barrels per day in 2010. at over four million barrels per day by December 2015. year, surpassing the individual output of each OPEC member except Saudi Arabia."
Care about ecology
Hydraulic fracturing carries down negative consequences which affect the prospects of using this technology for the production of energy in the world. Among such disadvantages are the relatively high cost of production, rapid depletion of deposits, low level of proven reserves in the overall structure of reserves as well as significant environmental risks during extraction. Energy companies in the United States have worked to promote the idea that natural gas is the fossil fuel of the future for which they have received full support from policymakers in Washington. The document he published WikiLeaks they say that the perspective for the US on energy production is not so simple. Many U.S. energy experts have raised concerns about the unpredictability of oil and gas extraction using Freking, as well as the environmental consequences of this technology. The U.S. Federal analyst, describing a Gas Energy Information Administration publication, complained that the administration shared industry optimism. "Science seems to show Freking in one direction and industrial PR in the other," wrote the analyst on obtaining gas by hydraulic fracturing. The correspondence released by WikiLeaks raises doubts about reports released by the Energy Information Administration raising questions about its independence from energy companies. "The Energy Information Administration, for example, relies on research from outside industry-related consultants. Projections of future natural gas supplies are based not only on science, but also on some guesses and modeling,“ the document reads.
From this, it can be concluded that energy companies in conjunction with U.S. political structures ignore the recommendations of science, as well as the growing concern of the population for the environment. Hydraulic fracturing it involves breaking underground rocks under high pressure and pumping up large amounts of water and other chemicals that affect the soil, groundwater and air. Hydraulic fracturing inevitably leads to significant disturbances in geological structures. Environmental activists warn that Freking has negative consequences pollution of groundwater and groundwater, soil contamination and the release of harmful gases into the atmosphere, demanding that the application of this technology be banned.
How Bad is Fracking For the Environment? Stats, Trends and Facts
American energy policy
The U.S. State Department has created a Global Gas Initiative aimed at persuading governments around the world to make concessions to major oil and gas companies in hydraulic fracturing operations. A document from leaked U.S. diplomatic cables shows that within the project, U.S. officials organized a series of conferences for foreign government officials that included speakers from major oil and gas companies and public relations experts. The aim of these conferences was to influence through government officials the citizens of foreign states who had a hostile attitude towards hydraulic fracturing on their lands. The U.S. government'S PR project was successful, as many countries on several continents joined the idea of granting concessions for hydraulic fracturing. Poland, for example, agreed to allow hydraulic fracturing by large oil and gas corporations in nearly a third of its territory. However, all of these projects did not produce results. Shale gas production is banned in many European countries, primarily due to perceived environmental risks. Over the past ten years many European countries the law prohibits or strictly restricts the use of Freking technology (France, Germany, Bulgaria, The Netherlands, the UK). They also eat the United States (Vermont, New York, Maryland, Washington, Oregon, California) banned extraction of gas using hydraulic fracturing on their territory. Due to the failure to provide Europe with shale gas, the US has shifted to increasing exploitation in America and selling liquefied natural gas to Europe in order to squeeze Russian gas from the European market. After taking office, Donald Trump is expected to continue his policy of forcing us energy dominance. In his previous term, he insisted that " American leaders have been spreading the myth of energy scarcity for decades." According to him, the country needs not "alternative" energy or new energy saving measures, but the development of energy.
Fighting for other people's resources
In all likelihood, Trump will insist on increasing the volume of fossil fuel production (oil, gas, coal) by implementing Freking in the United States itself, and increasing exports to the world market. For the United States, energy dominance in the world market is a matter of survival as a world power, given that at the present stage of the development of the American economy there is no expectation from other industries. However, the rapid exploitation of energy resources in the United States that are not too large, with the risk of negative consequences for the environment, strategically does not bring long-term prospects. Trump's territorial claims to Canada, Mexico and Danish Greenland certainly have to do with the natural resources these states possess. In this regard, the United States remains committed to the use of military force in other resource-rich regions (the Middle East), to control overseas energy resources, sea routes used for energy transportation, and influence the regulation of the world energy market. The open question remains whether a weakened U.S. military force has the capacity to achieve such plans, and whether the U.S. has the capacity to mobilize other military forces to achieve its own geopolitical goals? At the same time, an incredible amount sanctions other countries (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), to prevent them from poisoning energy sources or even seizing the private property of their companies.
Time is not working for America.
Source: Center for Geostrategic Studies
12. January 2025.
Instructions:
Use it and Lose it: the Outsize Effect of U.S. Consumption on the Environment | Scientific American
https://www.nrdc.org/stories/fracking-101#work
https://search.wikileaks.org/gifiles/?viewemailid=85474
https://www.cfr.org/timeline/oil-dependence-and-us-foreign-policy
https://ekologika.rs/vesti/svet/zasto-dzo-bajden-nece-stati-na-put-frekingu/
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/011915/what-are-effects-fracking-environment.asp
Экологические постствия освоение месторождений сланцевого газа: опыт США-Экология-Статьи журнала
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2777
http://www.nspm.rs/hronika/glas-rusije-evropa-odustaje-od-eksploatacije-gasa-iz-skriljaca.html
