Dragoš Vučković, president of the economics committee of the Center for geostrategic studies
My last post in December last year on this site, titled What awaits us in 2025.? ( Mr. President, what awaits us in 2025? years? - CENTER FOR GEOSTRATEGIC STUDIES) has greatly foreshadowed the current world tectonic changes this year, marking it as one of the turning points in world history. Since the beginning of this year, we are really just caught up in almost every day big turbulence and events in the world, as well as in our country, so that we simply do not get to follow them all and analyze them. This article will therefore try to summarize them in as small a form as possible and to maximize your thoughts and comments. A special part will certainly be devoted to the Balkans and our ongoing internal turmoil and turbulence, with proposals for possible solutions to exit this undoubtedly the biggest political crisis in recent history. This year, both for the world and for us, is likely to be a tragic one.
The first great wave of earthquakes started, quite expected and Long announced, from America, where certainly the majority of the rulers of the "Deep State", embodied in the industrial-military-banking elite, or as I call them the self-proclaimed western rulers of the world (SFS), quite firmly seem to have decided through Trump to try to save America from economic and political collapse in last minute. Therefore, it is no surprise that the announcement of a "new Yalta" or a "new Reykjavik" through which America will try to soften Russia through the cessation of the cruel war in Ukraine, even at the cost of lifting most of the sanctions and, of course, the beginning of the division of interest spheres. The point will shift to an even more fierce trade war with China, via the customs war, which is already well underway. For open warfare, through Taiwan, funds, both monetary and military, have been spent long ago. America, by doing so, at least for now, is only trying to take a more than necessary respite, in order to try again to return to its old dominant place, by acting to accept the reality of a multipolar world. Unfortunately, I am deeply convinced that America will essentially never come to terms with the certain loss of the throne, with the lost wars in the world, and especially with this one in Ukraine, which is painfully echoing, as well as with the, now already evident, loss of economic and technological war with China. The EU never forgave Russia for the defeat of Napoleon and Hitler.
Very rare authors today who see tectonic economic fractures as the main initiator and instigator of this series of earthquakes that have affected the whole world. The basic premise from which everything actually began is mentioned in almost every paper, and that is, now already largely visible, the collapse of the dominant neoliberal Western economic concept, which descends from the historical scene accompanied by the smell of lies and dishonesty, as Branko Milanovic says. At the same time, it concludes that this is a chaos in which it is not clear what kind of economic policies should be suggested or imposed on the rest of the world, with which, however, I absolutely disagree, and I gave the answer clearly in my earlier texts on this site. The western, and especially the American neoliberal concept, with its exhausted social and moral resources, which is no longer capable of living on the merciless exploitation of the rest of the world, was therefore urgently to be saved and reanimated, and that is why most of the Western "world puppeteers" decided to implement it through Trump and his team. The enormous U.S. government debt of over 120% of GDP, which has more than doubled in the last decade (with further borrowing more expensive and more expensive, more than double the forecast, otherwise paler, growth rate this year of barely 2%), and with interest alone being allocated more than for key items of the federal budget, including defense, it was necessary to cut sharply and save the economy from the downturn. But unfortunately, the tools allowed to Trump and his team are more cosmetic in nature, not allowing for any more severe structural changes in the economy, because they would directly sink into the unquestioned status of "puppeteers". Therefore, for any serious economist, the economic measures that Trump and his team are currently taking seem rather provisional and illusory. Let's just take the creation of a strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies, since they supposedly cannot determine the exact state of their gold reserves, and even many countries have been denied the return of their gold reserves from America. It is important not to mention that this process took hold especially after the freezing of Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves by the West. All this is beginning to look like a major financial fraud in which the US dollar will continue to lose its global financial power. Even more visible are the purely hazarder moves of America in the Great tariff war, not only against China, but also its closest partners, the EU, Canada and Mexico, which will return to them fiercely, not only through increased inflation, but the inevitable fall of the dollar and increased interest rates, in order to compensate for the loss of income due to its decline. Since the preservation of the dollar as the world's central reserve currency will be its priority over its priorities, America will soon enter a "deadly spiral" from which there is no exit, except of course new major regional wars for which resources are largely empty. Therefore, it is not surprising that the uncertainty index of the American economy is at its maximum level since the Covid pandemic, and its global equivalent is at a historic maximum, while the leading American stock markets have been de facto in permanent decline since the end of February this year.
The EU has long triggered the second major wave of global earthquakes, which intensified with the recent, "sudden" change of policy of the older overseas brother, who turned his back on them in a priority intention to save himself first. From there, the EU has since begun to play "Alice In Wonderland"in an unflattering way. The unquestionable support of the" world puppeteers", the majority overvested in America, the significant strength of Soros's lagoons, and ultimately still influential Davos circles, will not seriously succeed in helping the EU overcome the fierce systemic, economic and political crisis. All the more so, slowly but surely, by the decision of their older brother, they get custody of Ukraine, which will prove them, while their leaders persist in their wrong policy, based on errors. One of the most recent is that the EU will help Ukraine with new borrowing in the amount of hundreds of New billions of euros, in a situation when the economies of the EU countries are already burdened with huge public debts, some over 100% of GDP long ago. the tsunami of the economic crisis, which is already sweeping the coasts of the EU, is already felt, and this year is predicted to grow from only 1%, slightly higher for England. It is important to point out that the GDP of the EU's largest economy, Germany, has already fallen by about 0.2% last year, and that the industrial sector in their three most powerful economies (Germany, France and Italy) is already in recession, with alarming years of almost insignificant productivity growth. Let us take for example the insane policy of thousands of sanctions against Russia, where instead of cheap Russian gas, four to five times the price of that from America! This kind of EU is going down the road of safe decline, divisions and fierce divergences, which Hungary and Slovakia, for now, give a special tone. It is illusory to expect that the current ruling elites in the EU will at least try to implement some significant structural changes in terms of restoring their own autonomy, primarily through re – rapprochement with Russia and the revival of the original European troika-Germany, France and Italy, as this will primarily depend on the older brother and his leading European "Jacks", at head of England. Instead, the Brussels oligarchy is rediscovering its old, well – known enemy-Russia, which needs to be urgently preemptively attacked, which would prevent "its attack" on the EU, and the Ukrainian war itself as long as possible, because it is the only guarantee of actually survival in the life of this "Brussels deep state", supported by the now defeated side Western oligarchy.
The third tectonic wave is coming from the East, under the auspices of China, Russia and India, which are well on their way to connect almost all the non-Western world. With its economic indicators, and especially its growth rate, which exceeds that of the Western world, with a common pillar in the BRICS and SCOs, this bloc is already seriously threatening, until recently, the untouchable Western world. Since I have written about this on this site many times, on this occasion I will only give a more recent example of this from January this year, when the Chinese artificial intelligence company Dipsik managed to tectonically rock this market, causing losses on the New York Stock Exchange of trillions of dollars. This shows once again that America is losing the science and technology war with China, and that the multipolarity that we live is really real and tangible. With their completely independent payment systems, China and Russia have significantly contributed to a further decline in the use of the dollar in international trade by almost a quarter, causing much of Trump's anger and open threats. Gradually, with these and many other measures, China and Russia are only building their defensive bulwark against the impact of a new major economic crisis from the West, which is becoming more and more realistic.
The impact of these great World earthquakes is very much felt in the Balkans, which has been the "laxmus paper" of future world changes many times in history. The already legendary Lithics in Montenegro from a few years ago, and then the change of government, were and remain unfinished business of starting true changes and a kind of "recycling" of the Balkans. The current " student revolution "in Serbia, in terms of its scope and popularity, has a great opportunity to expand to most" Balkan despots", especially the" hardest " ones, and bring about a true and real transformation of these societies, which was absolutely necessary. In the conclusion of all of the above, it is probably a good moment for this, although it is difficult to believe that, regardless of all the problems, Germany and England, for example, will give up their geopolitical constants and goals in the Balkans, especially since, apparently, America will slowly get out of here. Be that as it may, the Balkans will have to find a way out of this hopelessness, to get rid of foreign constraints as much as possible and to build its future on a completely new and more humane economic model. In all of this, the only real, on real grounds based, Economic Union of Balkan fragmented states can become a real bridge of economic cooperation between East and West, with no one on the side trampling it, as before. Only in this way Can the Balkans, as much as possible, be prepared for these earthquakes from all sides.
The huge success of these pure student protests in Serbia has greatly surprised all of us, including the West itself, which is now in a situation where it is unlikely to be able to support the elite in power, which these protests have completely stripped away. On the other hand, Russia's own declarative support for the regime in Serbia seems to be fading, while at the same time gradually starting to prevail over the realistic observation of the current situation. Regardless of the great influence of external factors, in our case, the internal, i.e. the readiness of majority Serbia to persevere, together with the students and the partially honest and uncorrupted, but firmly united opposition groups of parties, in the fight for the change of the elite in power, and for a normal, just and democratic order. It will be a difficult road, with which, on the one hand, one should not rush, because time is working against the elite in power, but we should not make it too difficult, either, given the dangerous accumulation of economic problems, which we will have to solve for a long and very painful time after the change of power. I think primarily of the psychical and uncontrolled borrowing, intensified in the last few months, and accompanied by the inefficient use of these funds, which slowly tightens our debt noose.
Source: Center for Geostrategic Studies
Instructions:
Mr. President, what awaits us in 2025? years? - CENTER FOR GEOSTRATEGIC STUDIES
Drago Vučković: How can our small economy survive and develop? - CENTER FOR GEOSTRATEGIC STUDIES
Dragoš Vučković: five World processes that will mark this year – center for geostrategic studies
Dragoš Vučković: transformation of the world economy - Center for geostrategic studies
SERBIA AT THE INTERSECTION OF IDEOLOGIES AND ECONOMIC CONCEPTS - CENTER FOR GEOSTRATEGIC STUDIES
HAPPY AND HAPPY 2023. YEAR - CENTER FOR GEOSTRATEGIC STUDIES
22. March 2025.
