Dragana Trifkovic, director of the Center for geostrategic studies
Many conflicts in the world are deepening and activating, which on the one hand corresponds to the American doctrine of "conflict of civilizations" but on the other hand the collective West is economically, militarily and politically weak and thus reduces the possibility of creating controlled chaos to turn the situation to its advantage. The process of global repositioning has entered a dangerous stage when the management centers of the collective West, not wanting to lose the levers of power, show readiness to go to the end of World destabilization. In this regard, there is a danger of opening new fronts, in addition to the already existing ones where Ukraine and Palestine currently have a particularly high intensity of conflict.
More and more people around the world are talking about the possibility of a major war or a Third World War, which in the age of nuclear weapons sounds frightening. The question is, Who and why is war necessary? This is not easy to define if we take into account the fact that most of humanity does not actually know who in the "Deep State" in the "collective West" in the US or NATO makes decisions. Many terms are used to define these centers of global governance, but it is essentially difficult to define which structures are these and who makes decisions in them and in what way. It may be easier to define the parties to the conflict on a global scale and the reasons for their conflict. On the one hand, we have the undefined structures of the collective West, and on the other hand, the rest of the world that lies outside the collective West and is grouped into alternative management centers of the new multipolar world such as BRICS. But here one should not be guided solely by geography, because in fact many who are under the control of the collective West are looking for opportunities to transition to the "new world", and some have already done so. The main powers leading the creation of a new multipolar world are Russia and China, with India and Brazil in the BRICS since its founding (2006).), South African Republic which joined a few years later (2010), and now new members such as Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Ethiopia, while a long list of candidate countries (19 States: Algeria, Belarus, Bangladesh, Venezuela, Colombia, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, etc.) as well as interested parties (42 states: Afghanistan, KNDR, Libya, Turkey, Tunisia, car, Uganda, Syria, Indonesia, Yemen etc.). Unlike the collective West or the former monopoly World Order whose power architecture is pyramidal, with undefined power structures at the top (international corporations) controlling everything from the base of the pyramid to the top, the BRICS or multipolar world operates on the basis of non-interference, equality and mutual benefit. It's the opposite of how the monopoly world works. It is immediately clear that these are essentially two different concepts of" world order " that are in conflict with each other. In fact, the BRICS is an international economic organization that has grown into a serious geopolitical project and, above all, between the BRICS and the collective West, there is a conflict between two different economic concepts. However, the conflict is also fought on political and ideological grounds.
The West defined it as a clash of democracy and autocracy, but this is not an accurate definition given that there is only an apparent democracy in the West which is now increasingly being transformed into a "dictatorship of pseudo-democracy". If we set things up so that the old centers of global governance operate on a pyramidal basis, then there is no place for true democracy because governance decisions are made exclusively from the top. Special attention should be paid to the fact that in the West the institutions of the state have been alienated and parallel institutions of power have been created (paravlades, paraskupstates, paravojska, etc.which has nothing to do with democracy. Therefore, decision-makers are not state bodies or statesmen, generals, deputies, etc. the already undefined structure of global governance. If one cannot talk about the conflict between democracy and autocracy, then how is it possible to define the ideological conflict of two different concepts? Very simple as a clash of dehumanism and humanism. The collective West, under the guise of an apparent democracy, carries out dehumanization, which is reflected in the destruction of all traditional human values (spirituality, culture, morality, etc.), while the states gathered around the BRICS stand for respect for the diversity of tradition, culture and faith, the free development of each civilization.
Photo: King Charles oversees the training of volunteers for Ukraine
The alternative offered by BRICS is based on an integrated management system where decision-makers are really the state structures of BRICS members. Whether one will evaluate state structures as Democratic or autocratic depends very much on perception, perspective and knowledge.
Speaking of which, one of the books that comes closest to defining the cleverly intertwined and difficult to define the global governance structure of the collective West is John Coleman's Committee of 300. That the book mentioned is slandered as a" conspiracy theory " should not confuse you because it is actually a book about the practice of conspiracy. The fact is that secret societies exist and the West is very attached to them, which again calls into question how in a democracy whose characteristic is transparency can secret societies exist and what is their purpose? In this book, The author states: "can you imagine an all-powerful group of people who do not know the boundaries of the state, who are above all laws and all states, who have power over all fields of politics, commerce and Industry, Banking, insurance, mining, the drug trade, a group that accounts to no one but its members. To a large number of us, such a group seems beyond the reach of all the capabilities and capabilities of any existing organization. If you think so, you belong to the majority. The existence of a secret, elite group that rules all segments of our lives is incomprehensible to us.“ In any case, the arguments offered by the author in the book and the data provided are very clear and logical to understand.
In my deep belief, the main reason why the world is in a crisis of historical proportions is that the Centers of power, which have controlled the world processes for almost five centuries, are now losing those levers of power and trying to turn the situation to their advantage through the great conflict. However, this is impossible because global change is far away, but it is not a guarantee that conflict will not occur. The BRICS countries do not want conflicts, but the development and precondition for their geopolitical projects (One Belt One Road, Northern Sea route, Arctic LNG2, Eurasian Economic Union, etc.) to be implemented is to stop conflicts, which means to neutralize those global centers of power that provoke them.
In addition to economic and political-ideological conflict, there is also an aspect of military conflict between two different Global Concepts. Military conflicts that are ongoing, such as the war in Ukraine or the war in Palestine, are part of this aspect. There should certainly be added conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, which are currently of low intensity unlike those in Ukraine and Palestine, but also a number of other regional conflicts or frozen conflicts, which may grow into something more.
The main instigator of the conflict, more broadly near Russia's borders, is precisely the Global Management Centers of the collective West, but lately increasingly the instigators of international terrorism that includes state terrorism.
The expansion of NATO infrastructure towards Russia's borders is the main cause of the conflict in Ukraine, on whose territory NATO is waging a hybrid war against Russia. The Ukrainian conflict directly involves NATO states that send large quantities of weapons, instructors and advisors, volunteers (mostly from Poland, the United States, Great Britain, Romania, the Baltic states, Georgia, France, etc.), but now also a professional army. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian side does not achieve success on the front, and the policy of the neo-Nazi regime leads to the complete exhaustion of Ukraine. In this regard, the NATO alliance, which is also headed for defeat, is trying to mobilize larger forces against Russia. This can lead to a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia, with absolutely incalculable consequences if we take into account the fact that Russia is the world's most powerful nuclear power and that there are direct warnings from Moscow that Russia will not hesitate to use nuclear arsenals if it is judged to be a security threat. NATO Secretary General recently stated that the possibility of a direct confrontation with Russia depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine: "NATO does not seek war with Russia. However, we need to arm ourselves for a possible confrontation that could last for decades.“
Photo: Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian brigade
If NATO does not seek war with Russia, the question arises Why has NATO expanded its infrastructure to Russia's borders and deployed offensive weapons aimed at Russia? It is also unclear how European countries with weakened economies and over-indebtedness will allocate huge resources for armaments? Loans from China? Hardly.
No less threatening, recently Stoltenberg warned China that it must stop helping Russia in the war against Ukraine. But it is obvious that China, like Russia, does not pay attention to the desperate cries of the West. And why, when exactly what US strategist Brzezinski warned that should not happen, should the US simultaneously enter into a confrontation with both Russia and China. So for Europe, getting into a direct conflict with Russia can be fatal, and calming the conflict depends directly on the US, which commands NATO and which can only be Russia's interlocutor in peace negotiations. Here we should not lose sight of the fact that Russia has already set certain conditions from which it will not give up, namely the withdrawal of NATO infrastructure to the situation that was in 1997. the withdrawal of all U.S. nuclear weapons from Europe.
In addition to preparing Poland and the Baltic states to enter the war against Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom are conducting psychological propaganda operations in the Balkans, where they use Kosovo and Metohija as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina to destabilize this region and re-create conflicts on religious and ethnic grounds. However, the conflict potential is nowhere near what it was in the 1990s because none of the sides that were at war achieved any better.
The war in Palestine is not developing in favor of the Zionist regime, which has shown a great weakness of military and intelligence forces, and on the other hand directly directed aggression against the civilian population, which causes harsh reactions and is met with condemnation throughout the world. The United States, which is the main sponsor of this regime, is guided primarily by its own interests, and due to the weakening of its positions, they will be ready to sacrifice their allies. Henry Kissinger once said,"Being America's enemy is dangerous, but being America's friend is devastating." This should be borne in mind by all US strategic partners, including Europe. In this regard, Israel has no future and it is likely that the US itself will withhold assistance at some point. It should also be borne in mind that US actions in the Middle East have led to an increase in anti-American sentiment. Since the escalation of conflict in the Gaza Sector 7. in October last year, the US military was attacked more than 140 times in Syria and Iraq, including by rocket attacks.
In the Middle East, a firm Alliance has been created against US policy and the axis of resistance of Iran, Syria and Iraq, as well as Palestinian and Yemeni forces. A major role in bringing these forces together and creating resistance was played by Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by the US in a terrorist attack under Trump. Although there was a possibility of a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel, this did not happen because Iran is more suited to respond to hostile actions with the same measure (hybrid war). In any case, the future of American forces in this region, as well as American allies (Israel) is not promising. Because of this, US forces will likely continue to withdraw from the Middle East but will strive to maintain certain control mechanisms (in the short term), such as in Afghanistan. As far as Israel is concerned, the survival of the Zionist regime guarantees further confrontation even though the Israeli army is unable to occupy Palestinian Territories. The only way to de-escalate the conflict can be through the replacement of Israel's militant nationalist regime and negotiations led by moderate political structures for the creation of two states in accordance with international law. However, as time goes on and the Israeli regime's aggression against Palestinian civilians becomes more intense, there is less chance of that happening. In such a development scenario, Israel questions the survival of its own state.
Photo: Israeli forces attack civilians
And finally what is obvious, as failures on the front increase, Western power centers increasingly seek a foothold in terrorism, using the various terrorist groups they have organized for hybrid actions. There is a suspicion that Western agents were behind the terrorist attack in Moscow. In addition, the West uses radical Islamist groups to operate in the Caucasus, Crimea and other parts of Russia. Previously, it was believed that the militants were recruited and used by American and British intelligence services only against Russia, but now something else has become clear. According to the director of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation, there are 13 European private military companies and members of nine paramilitary proxies in Ukraine, plus members of the known terrorist organization "Islamic State". In total, more than 800 terrorists from more than 30 countries trained under the leadership of NATO officers have been identified, and their tasks are not only sabotage on the front and nuclear power plants in Russia itself, but also carrying out special operations in general throughout the post-Soviet space, including Central Asia. In addition, us and British secret services are working to create a terrorist network in Russia itself consisting of economic migrants from Central Asia. The terrorist act in Moscow was carried out by migrants from Tajikistan who had work permits in Russia and they were instructed by Telegram. Russia has arrested all perpetrators of the terrorist act and is working to expose the organizers believed to be from the West.
In the end, Africa is also a very important continent that has been threatened by Western colonialism for centuries. Although a number of African countries formally freed themselves from the colonists, they remained subordinate to the Western centers of power. In recent years, with the strengthening of China's economic presence and Russia's military presence, African countries have managed to counter the West's neocolonial policies and fight for the return of their sovereignty. This is extremely detrimental to the ambitions of the West, which has been accustomed to using other people's resources and achieving a good standard by seizing the wealth of African and other countries. Africa, like much of the world, disagrees with Washington's handling of an armed conflict. As foreign Policy columnist Howard French wrote, for decades in Washington's policy toward Africa,"America's interest in containing the spread of Chinese or Soviet influence has outweighed the consideration of good governance and democracy." In most cases, the United States, Britain and France have shown willingness to support corrupt regimes in African countries, so that they can pursue their own interests through them. But with the strengthening of Chinese and Russian influence, where African states have an alternative to cooperate economically with China or militarily with Russia and thereby achieve good results, the neocolonial policy of the West is increasingly being thrown out of the game.
Photo: Russian influence in Africa
The situation is similar with Latin American countries that are increasingly turning to cooperation with China and Russia, because they have vast experience with the hegemonic policies of the West. From all of the above, it is clear that Western power centers are losing power and influence, and with the economic problems they face, they see their only hope in provoking conflict. However, with the historical experience that the world has as well as the new deployment of forces and power, which includes the military advantage of Russia (hypersonic weapons), economic advantage of China, potential alliance of the whole world against the collective West, debunked methods of media manipulation, color revolutions, etc. the chances of the West are not very encouraging. Aware of this position, the Western centers of power split and begin a perfidious struggle for reposition in a multipolar world. The U.S. is increasingly distancing itself from Britain and Europe, in a need to find its place in the game of great powers aware that a multipolar world is the future. In addition, society in the United States has activated itself and is fighting against a system that has caused great damage to the state and national interests of America in its desire to dominate the world. Before the whole world is left a choice: conflict or the development of civilizations? It is necessary to avoid conflict because it corresponds only to the elitist circle of the Western centers of power that would sacrifice the whole of humanity for survival on the throne. In this regard, it is no coincidence that the Russian president recently said: "The Vampire Ball is over." And indeed the world will only understand what evil it has faced and what a historic break has happened. Let's hope, no World War III.
13. May 2024.