Lucas Leiroz and Raphael Machado – From polarization to Ukrainization: who benefits from Brazil’s social chaos?

The recent Brazilian presidential elections drew worldwide attention. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was elected to a new term after years out of the political arena. Jair Bolsonaro lost by a small margin, showing he still has political strength and popularity, contradicting the data presented by main institutes, whose polls pointed to an „easy“ victory for Lula.

Disrespecting the tradition according to which the defeated candidate must call the winner and congratulate him on the same day of the election, Bolsonaro remained silent until Tuesday, November 1, when he went public to make a speech[i] about his defeat. On the occasion, the current president of Brazil said that he would not contest the result of the elections, ending a series of polemics he had previously raised about possible electoral frauds. However, Bolsonaro also made it clear that he would not congratulate Lula, thus reinforcing Brazilian polarization.

Bolsonaro’s late comments were not enough to prevent the escalation of tensions provoked by the protests organized by his supporters in every state of Brazil. As a reaction to Lula’s victory and to the alleged existence of fraud in the elections, Bolsonaro’s voters took to the streets of the main capitals, blocked the country’s major highways and now camp in front of the armed forces’ units demanding military intervention[ii]. One of the main efforts of the protests is operated by truckers linked to agribusiness (a sector that supports Bolsonaro), who occupy roads and prevent supplies to large cities[iii] – a practice against which Bolsonaro has already spoken out[iv].

Brazil reached the trending topics of social networks and news headlines worldwide. Unsubstantiated rumors are spread about possible military moves to demand the cancellation of the elections or even to carry out a coup d’état. Meanwhile, domestically, in response to the escalation of the pro-Bolsonaro wave, social movements linked to Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) called their militants to attack right-wing protesters and “liberate” the roads, acting as true parallel militias[v]. For example, in Mirassol, Sao Paulo state, a pro-Lula driver attacked pro-Bolsonaro protesters, running over sixteen people, leaving women and children among the injured[vi].

In practice, Brazil is making its path towards social chaos. And there are groups strongly interested in promoting this type of situation in the country. Political polarization in Brazil is a problem that has been denounced for years by several experts. In recent months there have been many cases of murders and serious physical assaults between followers of both Lula and Bolsonaro[vii]. Faced with the election of any of them, popular reactions were expected to turn violent and generate uncontrolled riots.

In fact, the political status quo in Brazil ceased to be a mere clash between democratic forces of mutual respect and became an initial stage of domestic conflict, a real pre-civil war, encouraged mainly by external agents, uncommitted to the social well-being of the Brazilian people.

When we analyze the international connections of both candidates, we realize that both are deeply committed to anti-national interests. Bolsonaro, as well known, came to power as a South American proxy for Trump and Netanyahu[viii] and guided his foreign policy based on automatic alignment with the US and Israel. However, due to changes in Washington and Tel Aviv, he suddenly became an international pariah and was forced to take a sovereigntist turn in his diplomacy, returning to neutrality – a historic position followed by Brasília – in recent months. Bolsonaro continues to be supported by the same foreign groups, having received public messages of support from Trump and Netanyahu – who hope to return to power soon in their countries and count on Bolsonaro as an ally in Brazil)[ix].

On the other hand, Lula, who is globally remembered for being one of the founders of the BRICS, returns to power in a different way. Now, the leftist leader has strong support from American and European globalist elites, including NGOs interested in the internationalization of the Amazon Rainforest[x]. Lula even personally promised Olaf Scholz during a visit to Germany last year that he would include European participation in the administration of the Amazon[xi] – a speech he repeated several times during the election campaign[xii].

In addition, it must be mentioned that Washington showed numerous times that it preferred Lula to Bolsonaro in this dispute[xiii]. Last year, the CIA sent messages to Bolsonaro’s staff so that the elections would not be contested[xiv]. Months later, Victoria Nuland visited Brasília and repeated the message[xv]. Now, the Biden administration has promised to send officials to ensure a „safe transition“ of power[xvi].

It is important to note that Bolsonaro’s narrative that there is fraud in the elections is not something new or unfounded. Brazil adopted the electronic voting system in 1996, when the Electoral Court signed a contract with Oracle, an American company linked to the CIA, for it to operate the counting of votes[xvii]. This delicate relationship places Brazil submissive to Oracle’s interests, which in fact raises suspicions about possible fraud, although nothing has been proven so far.

This does not mean, however, that Bolsonaro is currently an „anti-US“ candidate, but simply that the current US government is leaning toward critical support for Lula. Bolsonaro is, on the other hand, desired by the Republicans – and would certainly be receiving the same support that Lula now receives, if Trump were in power.

In fact, today’s Brazilian political scenario is a polarization instigated by foreign political groups. On the one hand, liberal conservatives, evangelical Christians, and radical Zionists; on the other, progressives, globalists, and environmentalists. Both sides reflect interests that are not Brazilians and provoke a wave of polarization that prevents any candidate with proposals centered on national development, rather than foreign alignment, from gaining popularity.

Years ago, the slogan „It’s time to ‘Ukrainize’ Brazil!“ became popular among Bolsonaro’s supporters, who planned to foment a Maidan-like scenario to encourage military intervention[xviii]. Now, both sides operate in this direction, as Lula-linked groups are also inciting violence in the streets with the excuse of “liberating the roads”. The Brazilian military, contrary to the wishes of the rightists, seem committed to democracy and will not intervene unless the situation gets completely out of control – the problem is that this scenario is getting closer and closer.

Polarization is growing and so is the threat of a „Ukrainization“ of Brazil. It is necessary that foreign agents stop fomenting chaos in Brazil so that social pacification is achieved as quickly as possible.

Lucas Leiroz; Raphael Machado – special report on Brazil for the Center for Geostrategic Studies.

November 4, 2022

[i] https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2022/noticia/2022/11/01/veja-e-leia-a-integra-do-discurso-de-bolsonaro-dois-dias-apos-derrota-em-segundo-turno.ghtml

[ii] https://jovempan.com.br/noticias/politica/sao-paulo-rio-de-janeiro-e-brasilia-tem-protestos-contra-o-resultado-das-eleicoes.html

[iii] https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2022/noticia/2022/11/01/paralisacao-de-rodovias-por-apoiadores-de-bolsonaro-divide-caminhoneiros.ghtml.

[iv] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUbLJQFUiYc.

[v] https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/eleicoes/2022/mtst-orienta-militantes-a-desbloquear-rodovias-interditadas/

[vi] https://noticias.uol.com.br/politica/ultimas-noticias/2022/11/02/atropelamento-deixa-feridos-em-bloqueio-na-washington-luis-em-mirassol.htm.

[vii] See, for example: https://www.dn.pt/internacional/bolsonarista-mata-lulista-em-discussao-15152931.html and https://br.noticias.yahoo.com/lulista-e-acusado-de-matar-bolsonarista-apos-discussao-politica-145710033.html.

[viii] https://www.monitordooriente.com/20201013-o-brasil-de-bolsonaro-e-subordinado-a-trump-e-netanyahu/.

[ix] See: https://www.poder360.com.br/internacional/trump-pede-voto-em-bolsonaro-e-diz-que-lula-e-lunatico/ and https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/diplomacy/1664696451-israel-s-netanyahu-endorses-bolsonaro-in-brazil-elections.

[x] https://infobrics.org/post/36949.

[xi] https://novaresistencia.org/2021/11/29/a-tour-diplomatica-de-lula-e-seu-alinhamento-com-a-ue/.

[xii] https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/lula-defende-parceria-com-a-ue-para-explorar-amazonia-de-forma-sustentavel/.

[xiii] See Andrew Korybko’s opinion at: https://korybko.substack.com/p/bidens-reaction-to-brazils-latest.

[xiv] https://www.dw.com/pt-br/cia-disse-para-bolsonaro-n%C3%A3o-minar-elei%C3%A7%C3%B5es-segundo-ag%C3%AAncia/a-61700774.

[xv] https://oglobo.globo.com/politica/temos-confianca-no-sistema-eleitoral-brasileiro-diz-subsecretaria-de-estado-dos-eua-25505814.

[xvi] https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mundo/2022/10/biden-planeja-enviar-assessor-para-defender-transicao-em-caso-de-vitoria-de-lula.shtml.

[xvii] https://infobrics.org/post/35691/.

[xviii] https://jornaldebrasilia.com.br/noticias/politica-e-poder/sara-winter-chama-ibaneis-de-ditador-e-diz-chegou-a-hora-de-ucranizar-esse-pais/.