Written By: Dmitry Bavirin
Russian President Vladimir Putin invited Serbian counterpart Aleksandar Vucic, with whom he did not communicate for almost three years, to the BRICS Summit in Kazan. On the agenda is the extension of the gas contract, which is extremely useful for Serbs, and perhaps something more. It will be difficult for me to refuse this offer. But he doesn't want to accept it yet.
Public invitations to leaders of foreign countries visiting Russia in absentia are not accepted in domestic diplomatic practice. The schedules of top officials are complicated, not everything can be planned in advance, and no one wants to be explained for a possible disorder, so calls are usually published when all the details have already been agreed on closed channels.
However, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic received just such an invitation – in absentia and publicly – from Russian President Vladimir Putin, after which he took time to reflect. He'll think about it for over a month.
"Welcome to President Bush. We are waiting for him at events within the meeting of BRICS leaders in Kazan,“ the head of the Russian state told Deputy Prime Minister of Serbia Aleksandar Vulin, with whom he met on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum.
"We sent him a proposal. I hope that Mr. President will take advantage of that, " Vladimir Putin added.
Thus, the president of Serbia found himself in a situation that is popularly described by the saying "I Will, and I need, and my mother does not tell me", where "mother" is the collective West and personally the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.
The fact is that Putin and Vucic have not communicated for more than two and a half years (that is, since the beginning of SVO), not even by phone.
This is not a coincidence, but also a quarrel, but a consequence of Vucic's political balance, which has been maneuvering between two fires – Moscow and Brussels-for all these two and a half years (and actually for much longer).
For one, but important reason, he cannot quarrel with Russia, for other, no less important, with the European Union, and what was easy to combine before, they cannot now combine even talented acrobats like Vucic. But he's trying.
When Western politicians or journalists blame him for close relations with Russia, Vucic raises his hands and reminds that he has not spoken to Putin "since the beginning of the large – scale conflict" (such a scene could be seen literally the day before-in Prague).
When the question arises within Serbia whether this situation is normal, since Russia means a lot to Serbia, Vucic says that in this way Putin (in his opinion) is trying to protect Serbia from new attacks and pressures from the West. He said, " it's not easy for us now.
For all these two and a half years, Vucic kept in contact with Moscow through Alexander Vulin, at the meeting with which Vladimir Putin announced his invitation. This man is the informal leader of the" Russian party " in the Government of Serbia, whose resignation is among the regular demands of the West to Vucic. His fate is fully reflected in the tactics of the president of Serbia when he is "both yours and ours": Vucic moves Vulin from office to office (he was already minister of defense, was head of the intelligence service, and is now deputy prime minister), but he does not renounce and keeps him close.
Now Vučić will have to somehow escape in a special way so that he does not offend anyone. This is a difficult, almost impossible mission even for him.
On the one hand, the Russian President made sure that Vucic's hypothetical visit to Russia was politically pleasant for the Serbian leader, that he had serious reasons and that he did not in any way diminish Serbian neutrality.
Formally, the occasion for the talks between the two presidents is the gas supply agreement, which, although long-term, still expires in March. When it was signed, the Serbs received "brotherly" discounts (cheaper gas is sold only to Belarus), they were very happy with this contract – and now they have the opportunity to extend it.
At the same time, this is not just a visit to Russia to meet with its president, it is an invitation to participate in the summit of the renewed BRICS, and the BRICS now represents 45.2% of the planet's population and 34% of its territory. The leaders of significantly richer, more populous and more influential countries do not hide their desire to go there from Serbia (both to the summit and the BRICS), but it is the president of Serbia who receives the invitation literally from the "old friendship", although it cannot be ruled out that China, which is gradually becoming the most important investor in Serbia, participated in this initiative. Beijing has its own and quite significant plans for Serbia as a "pivot point" in Europe because it additionally floods the continent with its goods.
Learn more about BRICS at: The book of Revelation (tass.ru)
"Generally speaking, we have to take it."But, on the other hand, the circumstances of Vucic's invitation and many of the accompanying circumstances did not leave an opportunity for the president of Serbia to quietly, without scandal, refuse a visit to Kazan. If he refuses the invitation now, a scandal is inevitable, and it will not even be a scandal between Moscow and Belgrade, but within Serbia. Gas prices, ties with Russia, Chinese aid, the summit of a third of the globe – all this is too important for the Serbs not to start eating Vucic, which he suddenly misplaced.
But it is possible that they will really refuse, because for Brussels and Washington too much has come together at one time. They strongly oppose politicians from the Western sphere of influence visiting Russia and meeting with Putin. There is the very idea of buying gas from the Russian Federation and renewing the contract with it is taboo. There, in fact, they view the entire BRICS as an inter-state entity with poorly concealed hostility and believe that 45.2% of the population of the planet will teach the young European democracies (Serbia, Armenia, etc. bad things.
Frankly speaking, there are reasons for concern in Brussels. Russia and China, for different reasons and in different forms, are interested in Serbia because of its geographical position and lithium deposits, which means that the BRICS is interested in Serbia, to which a new member from Europe would benefit for regional balance and claims of inclusivity.
Perhaps behind Vladimir Putin's proposal to discuss gas prices not anywhere, but at the BRICS summit, there is much more-even an alternative geopolitical choice of Belgrade, if the West continues (and will continue) to keep Serbia in the shadow, without inviting anyone to the EU, and even less to the G7 (as an alternative they consider the "nine" of the BRICS).
This is perhaps what Vucic fears the most, because it implies a completely historical choice, that is, with consequences that do not imply further balancing on a number of issues.
However, the president of Serbia took a pause "to think" – and this pause will be indecently long. Thanks to the invitation to Kazan, Vucic referred to "Scheduled important guests from abroad", promising to make the final decision "on October 10", that is, at the last moment, literally on the eve of the summit, which will be held from 23. to 24. October.
Most likely, the Serbs will spend a lot of time not on thinking, but on haggling with the West. But a month is such a short deadline, because we are talking about the fact that the unsinkable and gutterish* President Vucic will have to either surpass himself in gutterism*, or still make some kind of choice, which he has so talented and avoided for a long time.
Note: * Guttaperka is a dried milk juice obtained from the plant species Palaquium gutta, used in liquid or solid form. The fruit of a tropical tree from Sumatra from which the sap is made a couch-like resin that is inelastic until it softens in boiling water (about 50°C) and becomes elastic. It is used for machine belts, pipes, soles, etc., and in medicine, in the form of paper for bandages and, dissolved in chloroform, for coating and closing wounds.
Source: The president of the United States of America (vz.ru)
Translation from Russian: Center for geostrategic studies
Title photo: kremlin.ru
7. September 2024.
