Integral version of the text published in the Russian Federal Information and political journal Person Foreign
There are 15 in Belgrade. March marked the largest protest in the history of Serbia. So many people have not attended any protests so far, including 5. October 2000. the first successful color revolution was carried out under the methodology of Gene Sharp. According to official information from the Serbian Ministry of Interior, headed by Vucic's coalition partner Ivica Dacic, there were about 107 thousand people at the protest in Belgrade. The Ministry of the interior of Serbia assessed that the protests passed peacefully and that there were no major incidents or violations of Public Order and peace. On the other hand, the archive of public meetings estimated that there were between 275 and 325 thousand people on the streets of Belgrade that day.
Indeed, as someone who attended this gathering, and all the major demonstrations of the last decades in Belgrade, I believe that the assessment of the archives of public gatherings is realistic. Certainly the exact number of protesters is not easy to estimate because the narrow streets of Belgrade were tight for all those who went to the protests and practically the wider city center was full of people.
Photo: Protest 15. Martha (personal archive)
I started from the direction of the Autocommand towards Slavija and already from Slavija Square so many people were moving towards the Assembly that we were gathered in the narrow Resavska street, former general Ždanova. For an hour we tried to break some 500 meters to the boulevard of King Alexander, the street leading to the plateau in front of the Serbian Parliament. However, the mass of people started in the opposite direction, because there was no longer a place there and we were forced to return to the direction of Slavija Square. The streets of Belgrade were moved by students, veterans of wars from the nineties who fought against NATO, members of 63. parachute brigades, motorcyclists, professors, lawyers, even family people with small children that I worried about when the crowd became so big that we were pressed from all sides. All in all, the atmosphere was dynamic, tense but at the same time full of mutual understanding. In recent months in Serbia, especially in the capital Belgrade, the situation has become increasingly tense. Many population structures express their dissatisfaction with the current ruling regime in different ways. The leaders of the protest are students who have been boycotting classes since November last year, and they were quickly joined by professors. Over 60 faculties in Serbia, five state universities have suspended teaching, as well as several higher vocational schools and two private faculties. Secondary and primary schools supported them, and then lawyers, medical workers and doctors, farmers, in a word, the whole of Serbia went on strike. The main driver of the protest is the dissatisfaction of citizens with the malfunction of state institutions, high level of corruption and criminality.
Almost no one in Serbian history has managed to unite the people against themselves so much, while at the same time promoting the policy of "Serbian unity". Many representatives of the current regime, especially President Aleksandar Vucic and Minister Without Portfolio Vulin, persistently repeat that the Serbian people should unite. No one could dispute that. However, the problem is that the current regime in Serbia is implementing a policy that is extremely harmful to the state and national interests of Serbia, which leads to the creation of a massive resistance to the regime. On the other hand, such a policy has led to the historical disunity of the Serbian people both within Serbia and within the wider area inhabited by Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and North Macedonia. Aleksandar Vucic has managed to establish cooperation with a part of the political elites in these countries, which declare themselves pro-Serbian, but in fact support all anti-Serbian moves of the current regime, such as the signing of anti-constitutional agreements with Pristina on Kosovo and Metohija, by which Serbia voluntarily shut down all state institutions in the southern Serbian province, i.e. integrated them into the so-called independent Kosovo system. For most Serbs, the attitude of the government towards the Kosovo issue is the main indicator of the correctness of that government. "Kosovo and Metohija are an integral part of the life of every Orthodox Serb, just as every Serb is inextricably linked to Kosovo and Metohija. It's not just Territory. This is a question of our spiritual being,“ said the late Serbian Patriarch Pavle.
Photo: Dragana Trifkovic at protests (personal archive)
For this reason, most Serbs cannot understand why political representatives of Serbs from the region, such as Milorad Dodik, Andrija Mandić or Ivan Stoilković, have not for a single moment condemned the anti-constitutional actions of Aleksandar Vucic, who implemented agreements with the West (Brussels Agreement, Washington Agreement, Franco-German plan). By signing these agreements and implementing them in practice, Serbia has renounced all privileges in the southern Serbian province. Most Serbs, both in Serbia and in the region, call these moves a betrayal of Serbian national interests. And you cannot unite the Serbs around such a policy, you can unite them only against such a policy, which is what has happened now. Therefore, the policy of the ruling regime in Serbia has implications for the entire region, and for this reason, our compatriots from the Republic of Srpska and Montenegro also arrived in Belgrade.
What is important to point out is that many pro-regime media, as well as some analysts from abroad, warned that a color revolution was being prepared in Serbia. It is a mantra that the ruling regime uses every time protests are organized, with which it tries to "scare" the citizens with the idea that it will be even worse if someone else comes to power. According to the same principle, the ruling regime sends signals abroad, with the difference that it claims to Western partners that the protests are organized by "Russian services", and to the eastern that it is a classic western scenario. It turned out that the announcement of a color revolution and a coup d'état on the 15th. Martha has another false alarm.
The only incident that occurred in peaceful protests was when sound weapons were detonated on a crowd of protesters, which immediately caused fear, panic, and unrest. Many people were knocked to the pavement and run over, suffering injuries. The protests ended earlier than planned. Aleksandar Vucic spoke days before the protest that he "knows that protesters are preparing violence in the streets", although all the protests were peaceful and dignified despite numerous provocations by pro-regime activists. Then the question arises Who and why used sound weapons on peaceful protesters at the moment when they stood peacefully and paid tribute to the dead in Novi Sad?
Many media in Serbia claim that this weapon was used by the Serbian police, although in Serbia the use of such weapons is not legally authorized. Some officials of the Ministry of the interior of Serbia have previously spoken in the media about the fact that Serbia acquired a device for broadcasting Long Range Acoustic Device from the United States through Israel. It is a weapon used to break up demonstrations by emitting intense sound waves in a certain direction. People who are affected by these waves can be disoriented, affected by headaches or nausea, and in the most severe cases, permanent hearing damage can occur. However, the MUP denied using such a weapon, stating that its use is not permitted by law. In a state where neither the Constitution nor the laws are respected to such an extent, no one believes when the ruling regime invokes them. Aleksandar Vucic even demanded that the prosecutor's office react and investigate who is spreading "false information" about the use of sound weapons during the demonstrations. However, there are numerous recordings recording the moment when this weapon was used, as well as a recording from the show on Informer television where the closest associates of Vucic were looking forward to "soundbite on protesters". It is likely that this case, as well as much in Serbia, will remain unclear, especially considering the fact that sound weapons can be easily portable, or even used with the help of drones. This is not Genasys ' Long Range Acoustic Device, but new technologies that are not known to the public and are owned by only three countries. It is very possible that the UK, as the biggest protégé of the Vucic regime, gave its consent to the delivery of this technology from Ukraine to Serbia.
Photo: Protest 15. Martha (personal archive)
In any case, it is still unclear how the biggest political crisis in Serbia in the last 25 years will be resolved. Students and citizens are announcing new protest actions, the opposition, which has completely lost political authority, continues to try to impose itself on protesters, and the ruling regime announced the day after the protest that it will try to form a new government by 18. April, and if that is not possible, they will call new elections to be held in early June this year. The problem is that Serbia's political system is so broken that few believe in democratic procedures and election regularity. Voter lists have not been revised since Milosevic's time, and even then there was doubt that they were not credible. In the meantime, the digitalization of the old voter lists has been carried out, but the dead in Serbia are still receiving calls to vote. After every election in Serbia, numerous criminal charges are filed due to suspicions of manipulation of voter lists, which was the case in the previous elections, and will certainly be in the next.
Protests in Serbia are motivated exclusively by internal issues (corruption, dissatisfaction with state policy, non-functioning of institutions, high degree of criminality, ignoring the will of the citizens of Serbia by representatives of the authorities, etc.), however, many from abroad tend to interpret them through the prism of foreign policy. Most of the citizens of Serbia are pro-Russian (even over 80 percent) and imposing a pro-European or pro-Western agenda is simply not possible. For this reason, the pro-European opposition is not welcome to protest, but of course they are waiting for their moment. However, it should be borne in mind that the regime of Aleksandar Vucic made much greater concessions to the West than pro-Western political elites were willing to. Former pro-European President Boris Tadic handed over power peacefully in 2012. he was not ready to sign the Brussels agreement with Pristina and refused such a request from Angela Merkel. Immediately after the coming to power of Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party, this Agreement and later two more, were signed without any doubt. Many in Serbia are convinced that the Serbian Progressive Party came to power thanks to promises to the West that it will make concessions demanded on the issue of Kosovo and Metohija.
Many foreign analysts tend to place Vucic, along with Orban and Fico, in the ranks of politicians who defend their sovereignty. Could it be 2012? during the reign of Barack Obama, could a sovereign power win in Serbia? And if so, how is it possible that a sovereign power does not protect the territorial integrity of the state or does so only on words? Something doesn't fit.
Instead of comparing the demonstrations in Serbia with those in Hungary, Slovakia or Georgia, it is necessary to ask why not one protester in Serbia carries the flag of the European Union, or why not European leaders come to Belgrade to support the protests? On the contrary, Aleksandar Vucic has strong support from both Brussels and Washington.
It is legitimate to compare the demonstrations in Serbia with those in Greece, where the people have expressed their dissatisfaction with the complete political establishment and corruption, as well as the malfunction of the institutions in the state. It should certainly not be ruled out that the Western intelligence services will have their own scenarios on every occasion and will try to use the situation to achieve their goals. No doubt about that. But is it in the West's interest to take action against such an obedient regime as this one in Serbia? The formal failure to impose sanctions on Russia in a situation where huge amounts of weapons are being sent to Ukraine (according to Russian sources, Serbia has sent several billion worth of weapons to Ukraine) and at the same time reduces cooperation with Russia in trade, Sports, Culture, Education, Defense and all directions, is not something that has too much importance for the West. Also formal non-recognition of Kosovo, in a situation where everything that rounds Kosovo's independence is being implemented in practice, is also not very important to the West. Why should there be disagreement with the authorities in Serbia? Since Western unity no longer exists, there may be divergence of interests between different powers within Western structures. Especially between Europe and the United States. One of the main reasons for the dissatisfaction of the Serbs is the signing of an agreement with the English company Rio Tinto on the mining of lithium, for the production of German electric vehicles. This business plan represents the competition of the United States. Well-informed sources claim that Trump has ambitions to secure this deal for the American company and that he has already asked the Serbian authorities to do so. This makes no difference to the Serbs. It does not matter whether an English, German or American company will be responsible for the environmental devastation in Serbia. This is unacceptable to the citizens of Serbia in any case.
Whether there is a chance for Serbia to avoid major breakdowns this time and whether it is possible to satisfy the interests of Dissatisfied Citizens, although political alternatives are exhausted, remains to be seen. In any case, it is clear that this year will be very turbulent for Serbia.
Source: Center for geostrategic studies/Person Foreign
22. March 2025.
