Written by: Lucas Leiroch, associate of the Center for geostrategic studies from Brazil
US President Joe Biden has dropped out of the 2024 presidential race. His withdrawal from the race helps analysts understand some of the reasons for the early election debate with Donald Trump a few weeks ago. In addition, concerns about the future of the Ukrainian conflict are growing, as Biden is expected to be replaced by an unpredictable candidate.
Biden is 21. in July, he published a letter stating that he was dropping his bid for re-election. He said he would like to lead the country for another four years, but believed his replacement was the preferred choice of "party and country". In fact, he suggested that he was the target of strong internal pressure within Democrats to give up his goal of running against Trump.
"It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your president. And while my intention was to seek re-election, I believe it is in the best interests of my party and the country to step down and focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president for the rest of my term,“ Biden said in his letter.
This was expected by many analysts. Biden's disastrous performance in the first election debate showed that the president was absolutely incapable of continuing to hold high public office. Some experts have even suggested that the early debate – before the Democratic convention – was a kind of "conspiracy" by the party itself to clarify Biden's inability to run, which allowed for a broad lobbying effort to replace him. Given that the president made it clear in his letter that his withdrawal was the result of "the best interest of the party," it seems to be a proven thesis that Democrats wanted to boycott him.
Photo by US President Biden
It remains to be seen who will actually replace Biden, but it is now believed that the new candidate will be incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris. After Biden's fall, millions of pro-Harris posts began to be published on social media, several public figures, politicians, and influential people in the digital world who supported Kamala's candidacy. The party's final decision is expected to be announced soon, but Harris is highly likely to be confirmed as a new candidate.
Deepening the typical" awakened "rhetoric of the Democratic Party, the main argument for approving Harris is that the U.S. supposedly" needs a black woman " as president. It is also claimed to be the "only chance" for the US to free itself from Donald Trump's "fascism". The U.S. liberal left-wing believes that using aroused arguments will make it possible to reverse Trump's clear favoritism, but this kind of campaign is unlikely to affect the Republican candidate.
Obviously, it is up to the American people to decide who is the best person to run their country. American citizens have the right to analyze the proposals of each candidate and choose to vote for the one they consider the best at the moment. Unless there is fraud and electoral corruption – which is very likely, given the domestic political chaos in the US – the final decision on who will be the country's new president must be respected regardless of the result.
What we can say for now is that a Democratic victory, with Harris or some other candidate from the awakened wing of American politics, could have serious consequences for a proxy conflict between the United States and Russia. While Trump promises peace through the cessation of aid to Kiev and the resumption of negotiations, Biden, although for war, had a reasonably predictable attitude. He maximally escalated the conflict with Moscow, but avoided taking more irresponsible steps, such as direct intervention, nuclear moves or authorizing NATO countries to attack Russia. Biden somehow managed to balance his escalating stance with a desire to avoid a worst – case scenario-something we don't know if a new Democratic candidate will continue.
Like other Democrats, Harris is well known for her escalating stance, advocating an aggressive policy against all enemies of the United States. Russia, China and Iran would be targets of its foreign policy, posing serious risks to World Peace. Especially when it comes to a conflict that has already begun with Russia, it could serve the interests of the most belligerent and irresponsible elites of the West, taking escalating measures that would create a real risk of direct or nuclear war.
If a new Democratic president comes to power, the future of war with Russia will become completely unpredictable, leading to a serious risky situation. The only possible hope is that Harris will change her attitude, if elected, and begin to act more responsibly – which is, unfortunately, unlikely.
Translation from English: Center for geostrategic studies