Lucas Leiroch: Eastern Economic Forum 2024 there will be a turning point in the history of multipolar cooperation

Note: This article was published in the December issue of the journal Delovoy Grozny

The neoliberal economic concept, which emerged after World War II, for decades managed to provide security and stability to Western countries with political and other factors contributing to it.

Economic expert of the Center for geostrategic studies

In March of this year, I continued on this site a series of my articles dealing with the current analysis of the world economy, with a special view of Serbia and the Balkans, entitled WILL 2022 REALLY BE THE YEAR OF THE BEGINNING OF A GREAT TURNAROUND IN THE WORLD AND IN OUR COUNTRY?. The past period has confirmed the credibility of almost all the given predictions, and therefore fully answered the question from the title of the article. This one, as a logical continuation of the previous one, will also try to answer the crucial questions of our future survival, but in a slightly changed and more concise spirit, without burdening with superfluous economic indicators, which during this series of texts certainly were.

Economic expert of the Center for geostrategic studies

The end of last year and the beginning of this year brought to the world quite clear hints of all the expected major changes and earthquakes, which I wrote about earlier in the series on the website geostrategy.rs including my last article from September last year, HOT SUMMER AND EVEN HOTTER AUTUMN 2021. As the vast majority of my assessments and forecasts, both economic and political, turned out to be quite real, here I just wanted to point out some current phenomena and trends in the world and in our country, which will undoubtedly lead us to the answer to the question from the title of this article. Perhaps the outcome of the burning Ukrainian war, however, will most quickly lead us to the required answer, with all its far-reaching consequences? All the more, it is actually an open conflict between NATO and Russia, with NATO actually instrumentalizing Ukraine as its part and pushing it into an open conflict with Russia.

Since the beginning of the publication of my articles on this site, followers and readers have been able to notice that I almost regularly touched on this very painful topic of ours, especially in the article "war of ideologies or towards a healthy and contemporary concept of development" from March this year. If the somewhat troubled and war-time of the 90s was in some way a justification for all our economic wanders and stumbles, and transitional in the first two decades of this century deeply delimited by a neoliberal concept that had to be strictly applied; what about our current economic thinking, when, in an Interreg of a kind of World realignment, we witness the breaking of leading economic concepts and the birth of several new ones at the same time? Is it possible that our economic thought still remains a difficult prisoner of the deeply fallen Western neoliberal concept, where, apart from the honorable exceptions of Jovan Dušanić, Nebojša Katić and some of our economists, almost no one must complain about some new economic idea, and especially the desperately needed new concept of our development? Does not every intellectual, in this case an economist, who washes his hands from economics, even politics, that is, from the most important issues of his society, people and state, in fact renounce his own intellectual identity, but also his civil identity, by understanding these key issues alien to others? - as paraphrased by one of our authors.

After a time distance of over half a year from my texts on this site, "one look at 2021. year " from December 2020. and " the grim and ominous winter of 2021. "in March of this year, I thought it was time for a new cross-section and a summary of the current predictions of economic and political developments, both world and ours. The order of topics covered has been partially corrected, and the latest cross-section of the economies of the non-Western world, primarily Russia and China, is now given within the first chapter. In general, on a significant scale, the predictions proved to be accurate and realistic, except obviously the pace and dynamics of certain economic and political developments and events in the world and in our country, but certainly, on a predominantly large scale, it was conditioned by the prolonged effect of the ongoing pandemic, the movement of which is almost impossible to predict. All odds are that the announced tectonic earthquake dynamics will only prolong within a year of the forecast, i.e. spring and summer 2022., with a completely unclear timeline, perhaps, in some forms, and until the year 2025. What is certain, these tectonic changes will change the existing world beyond recognition, bringing a completely new constellation of World Economic and political power, which will certainly reflect on the Balkans and Serbia itself.

On the eve of the last New Year, on this site called "One look at 2021", I gave my geo-economic and geo-political predictions of the main currents, with special reference to Serbia. Considering that, in the meantime, both official and unofficial basic economic indicators of economic developments for the past year, as well as expectations for this current one have been published in the world and in our country, I considered it expedient to do one cut-off at the end of the first quarter of the current year. All the more so that on both of these world scenes, as well as in our country, there continued the interesting gibberish, which I announced in the previous article. To make the comparison with the previous work as good as possible, I did not change the order of current topics and events.

We are slowly approaching the end of this" Corona " year, but also a year of great economic crisis, fear and uncertainty. Dark, and slightly pessimistic, and finally, albeit on a slightly smaller scale, optimistic predictions for the next year, almost each with several scenarios and variants for realization, which are usually expressed in percentages. Here, however, we will not deal with various possible scenarios and percentages of their realization, but we will base the prediction on the main current and expected World Economic and political flows and vectors, and of course their impact on our overall perspective in the next year.

Written By: Miloš Zdravković

What happened some time ago is unprecedented. The price of oil was zero. It is a matter of political effect, and he is very devastated. One of the important cohesion factors of the modern world is the consumption and trade of oil and its derivatives. The image of the mystical country, the largest exporter of black gold with which everyone aspires to join the alliance and from which no one wants to leave, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has for years been the ally on which US foreign policy has relied. He who controls the oil controls the world. So at least, plastically, Eurofanatics and Atlantics tried to explain to us, intellectually weaker persons, that Western supremacy has no alternative. Falling out of this system, one of the most important and influential elements, disrupts the already unstable balance of global politics and the order established after the collapse of the USSR.

Dragana Trifkovic, director of the Center for geostrategic studies, attended 12. the March conference " Russian regions, perspectives of sustainable development in modern socio-economic conditions", organized by the All-Russian social organization "Association of women entrepreneurs of Russia".

Written By: Nebojša Katić

Economic miracles in Europe are possible, and Serbia is a place where a miracle could happen. This follows from the extensive study "Serbia's New Growth Agenda" which the World Bank (WB) has just published. The council believes that with the reforms it proposes, real growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in the next twenty years could be seven percent per year. This is a spectacular average rate that would increase Serbia'S GDP almost four times in twenty years. The Council emphasizes that without the measures recommended in the study, GDP could grow at most three to four percent per year – not enough to bring Serbia closer to the European Union standard of living.