Patrick Poppel, an expert at the Center for geostrategic studies
Of all post-Soviet states, Armenia is currently the most exposed to Western influence. Hundreds of Western soft power structures are active in Armenia and are trying to shift society to a Western course. The US embassy is also quite large in Armenia.
Especially after The Lost Battle of Nagorno-Karabakh, many Armenians blame Russia for the defeat. This also led to Armenia freezing its CSTO membership and considering leaving this alliance. Many Russian peacekeepers are currently withdrawing, and Armenia has called on the EU peacekeeping mission to carry out this task.
In addition, Armenian soldiers are already participating in U.S. military exercises. Armenia now receives weapons for its army from France, Czech Republic and India. At first glance, it can be assumed that security cooperation with the Russian Federation could be interrupted. In this area of policy there are certainly major problems and challenges.
The West is trying to pull Armenia out of cooperation with Russia. Culturally, society is indoctrinated by the western lifestyle and, in terms of security policy, Armenians do not trust Russians. But the most important issue is economic cooperation between Armenia and the Russian Federation.
The Armenian economy has been heavily integrated into the Eurasian Economic Union for many years. Many goods from Armenian production are sold to Russia. The economy of Armenia is based on this trade. The Russian labor market also plays an important role for many Armenians. In addition, many cheap products are shipped to Armenia from Russia.
But the most important sector is the energy supply sector. Only the supply of cheap Russian gas can support the long-term development of the Armenian economy and provide energy supplies to Armenian citizens. There is currently no alternative to Russian gas and the West knows it.
Western powers will certainly try to economically separate Armenia from Russia, but that is not easy. The next step, however, will be an even greater impact on society and individual citizens. With well-organized programs, the West managed to reach students and youth of the country.
Here the main goal is the formation of a new Armenian society that the West will see as Hope. Such a society can then be controlled from the outside and can also be mobilized for political ends at any time.
The main goal of the West, which applies to all former republics of the Soviet Union, is to turn them against Russia. In some cases Nazism is used as an identity, and in others – just a hug of Western culture is enough. This is exactly what is happening in Armenia.
Turning to the West and Americanization are the result of decades of propaganda and soft power. Young people in Armenia look like Western youth. But these young people do not want to work for their country, but to migrate to Western countries in search of a better life.
Here we clearly see that the influence from the West is very detrimental to the future of these states of the former Soviet Union. The Armenians are deceived, who see the future of their homeland in cooperation with the West.
After the decision to turn west, nothing positive has developed in Armenia, so more and more people are leaving the country. Prices are rising, but wages are very low. No improvement is expected for the people in the future, but the government continues to go this way.
This is of course a detriment to the future of the Armenian people, but it is an even more important influence on the geopolitical situation. The question is whether Armenia could be lost as a partner of Russia.
Western powers currently have a major advantage through their soft power projects when it comes to influencing Armenian society. There is also intensive security cooperation with the West, which can be used for propaganda.
But we must not forget the economic factor. In the long run, Armenia has a chance to develop its economy only if it cooperates with Russia and other countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. In addition, there is currently no serious alternative to cheap Russian gas.
It is only a matter of time before the people of Armenia realize that the West has betrayed them. Armenian problems must be solved by the Armenians themselves, not by foreign powers seeking to exploit Armenia. The Armenians must understand that as a small people in a very small territory, they will always be victims of great powers.
However, it is important to have allies to have a future in our global world. And historically, Russia has always been Armenia's biggest ally. The people of Armenia should be aware of this reality.
Source: Armenia's hope for the West's help will bring disappointment infobrics.org)
Translation from English: Center for geostrategic studies
23. August 2024.