Written By: Stefan Brakus
After the night of the first round of the 2024 Romanian presidential election, on November 24, Romania – and indeed the entire European continent – received the shocking news that the independent nationalist candidate, Calin Georgescu, took first place with 22.94% of the vote, while the liberal candidate Elena Lasconi took second place with 19.18% of the vote.
The unexpected results from the first round of the election have brought to the European political focus several questions about why the Romanian people are now so ideologically divided between hard-line nationalism and liberalism. It has been suggested that a number of recurring problems within Romanian society have served as the main points of discussion when it comes to elections in this country – corruption in the government, separation of church from state, rights of the LGBT community and Romania's attitude towards the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war. Kalin Georgescu and Elena Lasconi, in turn, have strongly opposing views on how best to approach and resolve such issues, and regardless of which of the two ultimately wins the second round of the election, which is scheduled for 8OG in December, Romania's future in a rapidly changing world could look markedly different.
KALIN GEORGESCU: NATIONALIST
One of the reasons why the success of Kalinin Georgescu caused such a shock to the Romanian public – both in the eyes of his supporters and opponents – is the fact that before the first round of elections Georgescu was a relatively unknown figure in Romanian politics. In fact, his chances of achieving significant success in the election were so low that even many of his supporters and voters predicted that he would barely manage to win a significant number of votes, and the vote for him was considered another example of a protest vote. Media and political analysts across Europe have also noted that a significant part of Georgescu's campaign took place on the popular social network TikTok, which, especially in a more traditionalist country like Romania, would otherwise be seen as an unusual method of political campaigning and self-promotion. Georgescu even earned the nickname "TikTok messiah" for his highly religious campaign. It has been suggested that Georgescu's strong emphasis on populist rhetoric and traditional, patriotic values resonated strongly with demographic groups who were otherwise disappointed by the current ruling establishment and government in Romania, which, since the Romanian revolution of 1989. in the years and fall of communism, mostly pro-Western, it moved ideologically between the center of the left and the center of the right, with little room for clearly expressed left-and right-wing parties to gain more significant influence. The spectrum of electoral demographics supporting Georgescu is also highly indicative. Its supporters include young Romanians (who are usually more on the liberal or left-wing side of politics), the working class living in cities, rural voters and farmers. Such a broad appeal among multiple demographic groups of the Romanian population – including strong support from the Romanian diaspora abroad – has made Georgescu a favorite in the race for President of Romania, and many polls even put him ahead of his opponent, liberal Elena Lasconi.
Georgescu ran his campaign on a platform that explicitly promoted Romanian nationalism, and, as an independent candidate, it can be said that the lack of restrictions that usually accompany a candidacy within a political party really favored Georgescu and contributed significantly to his current electoral success and popularity. The absence of party restrictions and "rules" means that Georgescu and other independent candidates can campaign on any platform they wish, without having to adhere to any foreign party policies or regulations that limit what a candidate may or may not say or do. Such a" glove-free " approach by Georgescu seems to have resulted in his massive appeal to the common Romanian man and woman.
Georgescu's direct criticism of the ruling Romanian government and the coalition, the centrist National Coalition for Romania, proved very popular among both his supporters and opponents against the current government. A myriad of corruption allegations within the two ruling coalition members – the centre-left Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the centre-right National Liberal party (PNL) - appear to have had a significant and negative impact on the performance of the two parties ' presidential candidates, neither of whom made it to the second round. It is also very significant that the majority of Romanian voters chose an independent candidate rather than a representative of a party, which further indicates that Romanian voters are starting to tire of party politics. Instead, it seems they would rather see an individual running with a platform of their own ideas and philosophies, rather than a platform of politics predetermined by party programs, which can be quickly outdated or even completely ignored by the party's winning candidates. This also opens up the question of democracy, on which Georgescu certainly has his own opinions, especially taking into account some of his ideological inspirations from history, which will be discussed in more detail below.
During the campaign, Georgescu strongly advocated increasing the role of Christianity in Romania, a country that is predominantly Orthodox Christian (although 73.6% of the population of Romania, according to the 2021 census. the year, Orthodox, total statistics also include religious views of minority groups). Although Romania is a member of the European Union, which often emphasizes its strong commitment to concepts such as "progressivism", multiculturalism and state secularism, Romania itself remains a very conservative and traditionalist nation, despite a significant number of its youth increasingly turning towards ideological liberalism and secularism. It is this religious factor that is crucial to Georgescu's presidential campaign, because a very large number of Romanian voters, one might say, would rather have their state religion continue to play an important role in national affairs, rather than seeing their long-standing traditional and religious society undermined by what many perceive as liberal, the globalist threat (in this case, the threat posed by the presidency of Elena Lasconi, in the eyes of Georgescu's supporters).
The issue of LGBT rights has been a long-standing challenge in Romanian society. For Georgescu's presidential campaign, similar to the issue of separation of church and state in Romania, the issue of LGBT community rights and Georgescu's position on this also contributed to his electoral success. The strongly conservative and traditionalist nature of Romanian society as a whole provided Georgescu with a key opportunity to promote his distinctly conservative and traditionalist platform, arguing that increasing the rights of the LGBT community in Romania could potentially threaten the socio-cultural structure of traditional Romanian society and open up the door to even greater rights for other sexual minorities. Because of these factors, Georgescu was very open about his views, believing that any movement and organization related to the LGBT community must be challenged and fought against.
Although many Romanian and European media describe Georgescu as a "pro-Russian" figure, he actually promotes the concept of "Romania first" and advocates for the geopolitical neutrality and non-alignment of Romania. This is extremely important for the future of Romanian foreign policy, because as a member of the European Union and NATO-the organizations that Georgescu is fond of – if he becomes the next president of Romania, he could seek to have Romania leave both the EU and NATO, which could include expelling all foreign military forces from Romanian territory and dismantling their military bases. Georgescu also said that NATO's missile defense shield at Deveselu military base in Olt County was" a disgrace to diplomacy "and"a disgrace".
In the context of the Russo-Ukrainian war and the new and emerging multipolar world order, a neutral and non-aligned Romania would have significant consequences for both the West and the East. On the one hand, a neutral Romania under Georgescu's leadership would deprive NATO of key geostrategic positions in the Black Sea, while on the other hand, Russia could carry out its military campaign in Ukraine without worrying about a possible Romanian military intervention through Ukraine's Odessa region in case of further tightening of relations with NATO, which would potentially it could have led to the intervention of NATO forces in Ukraine against Russia. However, it must be borne in mind that Bulgaria and Turkey are also members of NATO in the Black Sea, and even if Romania left this alliance, Russia's ability to maneuver its fleet in the Black Sea would still be limited. Although Romania would no longer be a member of NATO, its status as a neutral state would also mean that Russia would not be able to legally maneuver its fleet into Romanian waters without significant geopolitical consequences, unless Romania gave explicit permission to do so. Such a move, however, would very likely not be popular among the Romanian population, given that anti-Russian sentiment in Romania has historically been consistently high.
Although Georgescu is in favor of neutrality, this has not stopped him from making statements that many have accused of being pro-Russian in nature. For example, Georgescu had previously praised Russian President Vladimir Putin as "a man who loves his country" and said he was for engaging with Russia in geopolitical dialogue, not for provoking and confronting. In his words, "security comes from dialogue, not confrontation."As for the Russian-Ukrainian war in general, Georgescu controversially stated that"the situation in Ukraine is obviously manipulated, with the aim of provoking a conflict intended to financially assist the US military-industrial complex."
Такође је занимљиво напоменути да је Георгеску током једног интервјуа у новембру 2020. године отворено похвалио двојицу контроверзних румунских историјских личности – Корнелија Зелеа Кодреануа, оснивача милитантног ултранационалистичког покрета Гвоздена гарда, и Јона Антонескуа, који је био фашистички диктатор Румуније током Другог светског рата и који је Румунију сврстао уз Силе осовине. Према Георгескуу, због инспирације коју је осећао од ових личности, он је „живео националну историју, [и] кроз њих говори и говорила је национална историја, а не кроз лакеје глобалистичких сила које данас привремено воде Румунију…“ Георгеску је такође раније изјавио да је Румунска револуција 1989. године била искоришћена од стране Запада како би „украли ресурсе Румуније“.
Even despite Georgescu's openly pro-legionary views, the fact that he can still receive so much support from the Romanian electorate in a country where pro-legionary sentiments and symbolism are practically illegal only shows how popular Romanian nationalism remains. This is despite the relatively liberal and so-called "progressive" nature of the pro-western Romanian media and the current government.
According to the data at the time of writing this article, Georgescu is ahead of Elena Lasconi in Romanian polls for the second round with a fairly large difference – 60% for Georgescu, 40% for Lasconi. Such a significant advantage for a strongly nationalist politician in an EU and NATO member state shows that for the majority of Romanian voters, traditional values and a strong sense of patriotic fervor are far more important than the pursuit of so-called "modernism" and "progressivism" as part of the globalist West and equally globalist blocs such as the EU and NATO. Instead of Romania under the influence of the West or the East, according to Kalinin Georgescu, the only influence that should gain a foothold in Romania is the domestic Romanian influence.
ELENA LASKONI: LIBERAL
In stark contrast to the strongly nationalist and pro-Legionnaire – oriented Kalinin Georgescu, Elena Lasconi represents the complete opposite in Romanian politics-liberalism and pro-Western orientation. Laskona's ideology seems to resonate most among the youth of Romania, who also form its largest electoral base. This is not surprising, given that young people in Europe generally tend to vote for more liberal and/or left-wing candidates, instead of the traditionalism and nationalism of right-wing candidates. However, such a trend is more pronounced in the countries of Western and Northern Europe – which Lasconi wants Romania to emulate socially, culturally and politically – in contrast to the countries of Eastern Europe and the Balkans, where even a large proportion of young people remain inclined and support traditionalist and nationalist values. Romania, as a Balkan or Eastern European country (depending on who in the country you ask), seems to follow the trend of the latter group, as a large proportion of young people support the nationalist-oriented Kalinin Georgescu.
To bolster her chances in the presidential race against Georgescu before the second round of the election this week, Lasconi focused on issues that are likely closer to younger voters and that challenge their passion. One such issue, already discussed in this article, is the rights of the LGBT community. Especially in larger cities, which are usually more liberal than more conservative smaller towns and rural areas, pro-LGBT attitudes among young people remain relatively strong, and many older voters in cities also show some sympathy for the LGBT community, albeit to a lesser extent. However, it is important to note that Laskoni and her political party, the Salvation Alliance of Romania (USR), do not have a definitive policy regarding the rights of the LGBT community in Romania. Although Lascons and USR are pro-LGBT, there are currently not many indications that they will take significant steps to change or strengthen the rights of the LGBT community in Romania. One of the reasons for the relative lack of real attention to the issue is that Lasconi is aware that while the pro-LGBT stance among Romanian youth is relatively high, the overall population of Romania still has a strong sense of traditionalism and conservatism, which will inevitably present an obstacle in all situations where Lasconi and the USR might try to adopt new ones.laws for the LGBT community. Therefore, Laskoni's pro-LGBT stance during her presidential campaign is more likely just a way to win more votes and support from more liberal voters in Romania, than it is something really significant in terms of the future policies she could implement if she becomes president of Romania.
Lasconi also supports Romania's even deeper integration within European Union membership, advocating for further political, economic and even military cooperation within the bloc, as well as for Romania's entry into the Schengen zone. Even among Romania's relatively pro-EU – oriented population, the concept of even deeper integration into the bloc has encountered some skepticism, given the negative implications arising from the country integrating even more of its society and infrastructure with the EU, to the point where potentially leaving the bloc – if the people wanted it-would become it's getting harder.
Laskoni's pro-EU position is closely linked to her desire for Romania to become even more aligned with the West in general, including Romania's continued membership in NATO. moreover, Laskoni has expressed a desire for Romania to be geopolitically closer to the United States, which in Romania in general has been met with considerable skepticism, given this that a large portion of the population does not view the United States in a positive light, regardless of whether the president of the United States is a Democrat or a Republican. While many Romanians really want to see their country aligned with the EU on certain issues when it comes to cooperation, Lasconina's strongly pro-Western, pro-Atlanticist and globalist stance could prove alienating to many Romanians who want foreign interference in their national affairs to be minimized.
Lasconi was very open about her desire for Romania to become an even more secular state, with the role of the Romanian Orthodox Church reduced exclusively to spiritual and religious issues, not to social, cultural or political ones. While this could be one of the more popular policies among the more liberal youth in Romania, given that the overwhelming majority of Romanians belong to the Orthodox Christian faith, the concept of a more secular Romania could weaken Laskona's position in the presidential race. The attempt to impose secularism on an otherwise strongly religious nation is almost never in favor of so-called progressive political candidates.
Returning to the sphere of geopolitics and Foreign Relations, Laskoni openly advocated increasing Romania's support for Ukraine in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. This proved to be quite controversial in Romania. In general, public opinion in Romania regarding the level of support for Ukraine is becoming increasingly divided. Although Romanians generally support Ukrainian efforts in the war against Russia, many – especially the older generations – have not forgotten the fact that some former Romanian territories are still located in Ukraine and that some consider them occupied territories since the time of the Soviet Union. These territories include Northern Bukovina, the southern part of Odessa Oblast and even the infamous Snake Island. Culturally, many Romanians generally view Ukrainians as similar to Russians, as both groups come from former Soviet countries that had a lot of negative histories with the Romanians, both in peace and war. Attitudes towards Ukrainian refugees are also becoming increasingly skeptical, as some Romanians consider Ukrainian refugees to enjoy even greater social rights than many Romanian citizens. This sentiment is reflected in the relative lack of pro-Ukrainian symbols throughout Romania, where Ukrainian flags and slogans in support of Ukraine are largely absent from Romanian public life, in contrast to the situation immediately following the initial Russian invasion in February 2022. years. There is also the question of how much aid Romania should send to Ukraine. At a time when Romania is still trying to improve its economic difficulties and defense capabilities, in the event of an open war between NATO and Russia, many in Romania believe that their more urgent problems should be a domestic issue, not a priority of Ukraine. Especially if the current situation in Ukraine increasingly seems to be in favor of Russia, not Ukraine. If Ukraine is really on track to lose the war against Russia, it might not be in Romania's long-term interest to continue providing the assistance Ukraine may need in the future. For Elena Laskoni, the issue of Ukraine could prove to be one of her most unfavorable in the presidential race.
Speaking about Kalinin Georgescu's stance on neutrality, Lasconi said that Romania is currently facing "a historic confrontation between the preservation of Romania's young democracy.and those who want to return Romania to the Russian sphere of influence.“ This statement seems confusing and somewhat ironic, given the fact that Georgescu openly supports the aforementioned Romanian historical figures, Cornelius Zelea Codreanu and Ion Antonescu, who were both militantly nationalist-oriented and distinctly anti-communism, as well as against any fall of Romania under the the Russian sphere of influence. Moreover, the Legionary movement, founded by Codreanu, waged an extended armed struggle against the Romanian communist regime until the 1950s. Given the appropriate historical context, Laskona's claims that Georgescu is in some way pro-Russian, while he is actually pro – neutrality – that is, for Romania-could very easily be dismissed. This, in turn, could negatively impact her presidential campaign as a whole.
As for the presidential race as a whole, at the time of writing this article, Georgescu is well ahead of Laskoni in polls. However, regardless of who wins the second round of elections this week, it is highly likely that Romania will no longer be a politically forgotten part of Europe, but will seek to re – position itself on the map of Europe as a nation of strong importance, both for the West and for the East-and above all for Romania itself and its people.
Source: The 2024 Romanian Presidential Elections: the Nationalist VS the Liberal-Eagle Eye Explore
6. December 2024.
