By Lucas Leiroz, journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant.
Kiev continues planning to invade Russian demilitarized territories. An article recently published by an important Western media outlet reports that Ukrainian special troops are being trained on British soil to attack the Crimean oblast, thus fulfilling the regime’s goal of recovering the reintegrated Russian oblast. The operation will be carried out with the mobilization of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, in addition to advanced [NATO-supplied] military equipment.
The information was shared by Express UK on the 29th of July. Sources told journalists that around 2,000 Ukrainian special troops are being trained in the Dartmoor region. There is a program of specialized exercises being operated to prepare the regime’s forces to launch an incursion on Crimea “before Christmas”. The data were confirmed by Kiev’s own intelligence chief, Kyrill Budanov, who said on the same day that news attacks on Crimea will take place „soon“.
The operation is expected to involve a complex military apparatus, including aviation, navy and ground vehicles. Troops trained in Dartmoor are being instructed to try to „paralyze“ the Russian enemy while armors advance on the ground. The British program is focusing on the preparation of „commando“ units, which are special forces expert in unconventional assaults against targets of high strategic value.
The informants also clarified that the British instructors are officers linked to „Commando 42“, a battalion of British marines. NATO’s agile combat tactics are being taught, with intensive exercises using real ammunition, mainly in simulations of night confrontation. It was also reported that the training camp is now closed to all other British units, in exclusive use for Ukrainian drills.
“The operation to retake it will be one deploying multiple assaults on Russian forces (…) We can train them in our tactics and show how to use equipment, but success will come from the Ukrainians’ own ability to quickly adapt and overcome challenges“, a British source familiar to the military exercises told journalists.
However, the newspaper also interviewed experts who showed some kind of skepticism regarding the possibility of success in the operation. For example, British writer Keir Giles, a specialist on Russian studies, has stated that it is „unlikely“ that a Ukrainian „blitzkrieg“ will be victorious in Crimea. He, however, said that if the attacks on Kerch (Crimean) Bridge continue to happen repeatedly, perhaps the Russian control of the oblast will be affected.
“This is unlikely to be achieved through a blitzkrieg strike unless Russian forces have completely collapsed. But if attacks on the Kerch bridge continue, and they interdict the railway line and this coincides with the offensive that threatens other routes, eventually, that must have an impact on just how viable Russia’s hold on Crimea is“, he said.
This is not the first time that reports of this type are made. A year ago, for example, it was stated by Western media outlets that the UK had trained Ukrainian military divers specializing in amphibious operations to launch an attack against the „Snake Island“, in the Black Sea. As well known, London has been one of the biggest agents of destabilization throughout the Ukrainian conflict, constantly violating Russian redlines, training thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and providing unrestricted military aid to the neo-Nazi regime – without any concern for peace. So, it was really expected that the UK would get involved in maneuvers in Crimea.
However, it seems unlikely that these plans will succeed. Moscow maintains absolute military control on the frontlines, being able to “predict” enemy moves and launch high-precision attacks to neutralize targets that are involved in suspicious maneuvers. In response to the recent Ukrainian terrorist attacks in Crimea, Russia has maintained a series of military operations to reduce enemy firepower in the Black Sea, which makes it very difficult for Kiev to advance in the region – even in a „blitzkrieg“ strategy.
The very numbers shown in the reports seem insufficient to operate this type of maneuver. 2,000 special troops is an expressive figure, but not enough to make Russia lose Crimea. Also, there is the issue of replacement capacity for casualties – something at which Kiev is very weak, considering the reduced number of troops available, while Moscow has so far used only a small percentage of its military potential.
So, if Ukraine launches an offensive in the region, it will face not only strong Russian military resistance, but also solid popular support for local security forces. In practice, there will be a lot of suffering for the Crimean people, but there will be no positive result for Ukraine after the end of hostilities.