The International Conference on European Security was recently held in Warsaw, where one of the speakers was a geopolitical analyst from Poland, Konrad Rekas.
That was the occasion to talk with him about current topics related to Poland and security in Europe...
The interview was conducted by Dragana Trifković, general director of the Center for Geostrategic Studies
- You participated in the conference on European security "How to avoid the war?" in Warsaw. Why this name of the conference and is the invasion of NATO forces in Ukraine real? How can Poland avoid war?
The world is facing two great threats today: the outbreak of WW3 and the Great Depression 2.0, much more serious than the one in 2007-2011 and similar to the market collapse of the 1930s. Both of these phenomena are interconnected, because the ongoing series of local wars and the high probability of further ones in the Middle East and on the South China Sea seem to be methods of camouflaging the upcoming collapse of neoliberal global capitalism. In this situation, avoiding war becomes a matter of life and death, especially for the Central European nations, located in the natural crush zone between the West and the East. Any losses and destruction that would affect Poland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia or the Czech Republic in connection with the war with Russia are considered acceptable costs by the Anglo-Saxons. We may be the next victims of this war, and neither in Washington nor in London will anyone hesitate to send Polish or Romanian soldiers to die first in Ukraine, and then perhaps on the territories of our own countries.
NATO troops do not even have to enter Ukraine, because they have already been there for a long time. The French and British presence on the Kyiv side is increasing from week to week, officially of course mainly for training and logistics purposes, but also for intelligence and we already know about the activity of NATO special forces, sappers, gendarmerie and even the police, including Polish one there. Information on this subject is simply fed to the Western public in order to gradually accustom it to NATO's increasing military involvement. In this way, the full-scale entry into the war of countries such as Poland will seem simply a logical consequence of previously ongoing actions.
Unfortunately, in the current political situation, if such a decision is made, it is impossible to imagine avoiding Poland's participation in the war with Russia, although over 90 percent of society opposes sending Polish troops to Ukraine. However, it is not the Poles who decide, but the American hegemon.
- Analytical materials about the desire of Poland, Hungary and Romania to annex the western parts of Ukraine were actively discussed at the conference. How realistic are these plans?
It is necessary to distinguish the sentiments and hopes of Polish society from the policy of the Polish government. The authorities in Warsaw do not want to annex part of Ukraine, that is the truth and the Russian media needlessly delude themselves that it is otherwise. Of course, when nearly 1/3 of Poles have some historical, family connections with the Eastern Borderlands, including the lands currently occupied by Ukraine, it is difficult for us to forget that cities such as Lwów, Łuck, Stanisławów, Równe, Tarnopol have been for centuries centres of Polish cultural and social life. The return of these areas to the Polish motherland would be an epoch-making event and a great national holiday, but the current rulers will not give Poles such gifts. On the contrary, if Polish troops come to Ukraine, it will be to save the Kiev regime and former Polish lands... for Ukraine.
Of course, if Polish troops enter Lwów, even as allies of Zelensky and Mayor Sadovyi, it does not mean that we will leave quickly. A new geopolitical situation will be created, and this can always be saturated with new content. It may be the Polish-Ukrainian union, but whether it will be more Polish or more Ukrainian, we would see later on, and much would depend on the determination and commitment of the Poles themselves if the border dividing the eternally Polish lands truly disappears. After all, millions of Ukrainians care more about going further to the West than on the lands and cities. And the vacuum should be filled in their place. Certainly, Poles would not manage our own former property in the East worse than oligarchs and Western capital do today.
- You often talk in your interviews about Poland's plans to create a Ukrainian-Polish state in western Ukraine. Are these the real plans for Warsaw? Is the Polish army involved in this? And how do the official structures of the United States and NATO relate to this? And also the current Kiev regime?
The idea of a Polish-Ukrainian union, whatever it may be, appears from time to time, especially in circles closer to British policy towards Kiev. We can therefore assume that this is one of several possible scenarios predicted in London and Washington for Ukraine, depending on the course of events on the front and probably on the stability of the Zelensky’s regime. When it begins to falter and Poland will have to become another frontline state, then some new Polish-Ukrainian state entity would allow Ukraine to be drawn into NATO through the back door, and other countries belonging to the alliance would not be obliged to provide direct military assistance to this UkroPolin, as it is due because of the Art. 5 of the Treaty.
Such a scenario has many advantages for the West, but it would be very dangerous for Poland, which in one fell swoop would find itself in a state of actual war with Russia, and in addition would renounce its own sovereignty (although limited by NATO and the EU) in favour of some undefined state entity with significant influence of Nazis and oligarchs. Instead of reaping any national benefits from the fall of the regime in Kiev, we would provide it with a direct influence on Poland's internal politics, in addition to ultimately devastate our own economy, especially agriculture and transport.
Yes, Poles can and should strive to regain Polish property in the Eastern Borderlands, but without the unnecessary and harmful burden of the corrupt Ukrainian administration there.
- Should Poland get involved in NATO adventures?
No, never.
References:
https://asiatimes.com/2024/04/nato-starts-deploying-troops-as-russia-races-to-win/